James Jones or Jordy Nelson: Who Should Get Paid?

The Packers have a decision to make in their wide receiver corps.

Ted Thompson loves his wideouts, and one of the Packers’ biggest strengths since he came on board has been an extraordinarily deep group of wide receivers. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver starting, and James Jones and Jordy Nelson backing them up, the wideouts helped take Green Bay all the way to the Super Bowl.

Now it’s contract time, and we have to look at the overall group. Driver will likely retire within the next year or two, and his production has fallen off to the point where he’s more of a No. 3 now than a No. 2. James Jones is a free agent, while Nelson’s rookie contract ends after this year. Whoever gets the contract will eventually replace Driver as the No. 2. So assuming they can’t pay both*, whom should the Packers sign to a long-term deal?

To answer that question, let’s take an in-depth look at both receivers.

 James Jones #89

Over four years (one mostly curtailed by a knee injury), Jones has caught 149 passes for 2,069 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 13.9 yards par catch. He has worked primarily from the No. 3 slot on the depth chart, and has fumbled six times. He led the team this year in average yards after the catch, at 5.16 per, and had two 100-yard games (Minnesota, Dallas). He had one 100-yard game in 2009 (Tampa Bay), one in ’08 (Jacksonville) and one in ’07 (Denver).

Jones definitely possesses more natural talent and speed than Nelson. He’s extremely good at catching low-thrown balls and bailing his QB out on the scramble drill (40 first downs in ’10 to Nelson’s 18). According to the Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn, he’s “built like a brick outhouse” and “able to snatch the ball as well as anyone on the roster”; witness his the one-handed touchdown against Minnesota or the fade route over Atlanta’s Brent Grimes for examples.

He’s also prone to drops at the worst possible times. Jones dropped a slant route against Dallas and go routes against Miami, the Jets, the Giants, the Eagles and the Steelers that likely would’ve all gone for touchdowns. In addition, a Rodgers interception against the Dolphins and a Flynn pick vs. the Patriots happened when Jones appeared to quit on the routes. Jones has the speed to outrun the defense on go routes, but he drops too many passes overall (17 in the last two years).

Jordy Nelson #87

Nelson has mostly worked out of the No. 4 slot for the past three years, catching 100 balls for 1,268 yards, six touchdowns and a 12.7 ypc average. He dropped four of 83 targeted passes in his first two years before dropping 10 of 92 this year (inc. playoffs). His résumé includes four drops in the Super Bowl, but more importantly, nine catches for 140 yards and one TD. Also has six fumbles in four seasons, including four lost. Has just one 100-yard game besides the Super Bowl, catching four for 124 against the Giants in ’10.

Nelson’s biggest strength is knowing when to step it up. Played extremely well against the Giants and in the four-game postseason, Super Bowl included. Also made the clutch touchdown catch on fourth down at Atlanta (regular season). His breaks aren’t particularly crisp, but he’s big enough (6’3”. 217 lbs) to effectively box defenders out with his body and keep them away from the football. Definitely the best run blocker among the WRs. Does a good job evading contact at the line of scrimmage. His route-running, hands and agility are all pretty average.

The Verdict?

I honestly don’t have a definitive answer. When I started this, I kept thinking about Jones’ copious drops, and thought that Nelson would be a better, more consistent option. But Jones is more talented and a better possession-type receiver than Nelson is at this stage, and also runs crisper routes.

Both players have benefited from their matchups against No. 3 and 4 corners, and of coverage slanted towards Jennings and Jermichael Finley. I think, however, that Nelson is a bit more suited to deal with defenses paying more attention to him. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of a contract offer they make to Jones, and whether they value Nelson’s big-game production more than they do Jones’ superior potential.

 

Best guess: Nelson.

*Ted Thompson will need cap space to sign players like Clay Matthews, Josh Sitton and Jermichael Finley to long-term deals in the next year or two. Also, Greg Jennings’ contract expires after 2012, so assuming that the Packers can pick only one receiver is a reasonable assessment.

Packers Who Won't Be Back Next Year (And How We'll Replace Them)

 The Super Bowl champions nearly always lose a lot of people in the year or two after the game takes place. Free agents get huge deals elsewhere, veterans retire or move on and fat gets trimmed from the roster. With a deep roster, fifteen players returning from injured reserve and lucrative deals waiting once free agency resumes, a lot of Packers will likely be playing elsewhere next year. Here are some of the most likely candidates to move on.

We'll Miss You!!

Brandon Jackson

The Packers' 2007 second-round pick saw his rookie contract expire after the 2010 season. Despite a mediocre season as the starter after Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, Jackson still wants to start somewhere, and will likely be given an opportunity in free agency. He's a top-notch pass-blocker and by far the Packers' best man on screen passes, but whatever team picks him up will have to deal with his limitations running the football and in overall speed. James Starks will likely take over as the third-down back, as well as splitting time as the starter with Ryan Grant, and I expect the Packers to spend a mid- to late-round pick on another back.

Korey Hall

 The Packers' nominal No. 1 fullback, another 2007 draftee, also has his contract expiring and probably won't be back. He's the best blocker among the three-man corps, but Quinn Johnson is still around and John Kuhn will certainly be resigned, and since Hall has been injured for large parts of the last three years, it's likely he won't be back. The Packers will have a job replacing Hall on special teams, however.

                                 James Jones

The second most talented receiver on the roster after Greg Jennings, Jones is also the most inconsistent. Packers fans will remember his spectacular touchdown catches against Atlanta in the playoffs (left) and the one-hander against Minnesota, but Jones can't be relied on on deep passes. The 2007 third-rounder dropped deep balls against the Giants, Eagles and Steelers late in the season that all could have been long touchdowns.
 Despite his drops, Jones has a ton of talent and the ability to be a starter and star, and teams will give him a chance come free agency. My prediction is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are always looking for receivers.
With Donald Driver's career in Green Bay nearing its end, look for the Packers to spend a high pick on Jonathan Baldwin or another tall receiver to fill out the corps behind Jennings and presumptive 2011 starter Jordy Nelson.

Daryn Colledge

 One of the only true starters on this list, Colledge has been pretty darn consistent for the last five years. He's started 78 games at left guard and occasionally at left tackle, and was thought to be the Packers' long-term plan at LT until several disastrous stints there in relief of Chad Clifton in '09. Journal Sentinel beat writer Bob McGinn said "there's no question he ranks fifth-best on a five-man unit" after the season. Colledge spent part of the offseason speaking out about a long-term contract, and between that and his subpar play, it's not hard to imagine the Packers letting him go. Third-year lineman T.J. Lang or sophomore Nick Macdonald will probably replace him in '11.

 Jason Spitz

Once a key starter along the interior of the line, Spitz has been merely a reserve for the last two seasons, since the emergence of Josh Sitton at RG put him out of a job there. The Packers were getting trade offers from him at the end of the 2010 training camp, and he might be attractive to teams looking for a low-priced center or guard. I could easily see him resigning with the Packers, though. Spitz had back issues in '09 and before, and his regress to backup status might be a turn-off for suitors.

Mark Tauscher

The savior of the right tackle position in 2009 after Allen Barbre imploded, Tauscher had a mediocre four-game stint in '10 before going on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. There's no reason to bring him back, with Bryan Bulaga seemingly locked-in at RT for another year, and he'd earn $4.1 million in base salary next year for a team that'll be looking to cut spending. Don't expect to see him on the opening-day roster.

Brett Swain

Swain's been on the roster for two years, plays hard and has been a special-teams constant. He just doesn't have the speed to ever be dangerous on the field, and if Thompson keeps to his mantra of drafting plenty of receivers, Swain will likely lose out in training camp to a speedy kick-returner type.






Cullen Jenkins

I couldn't resist using this photo.

I've already covered in this space how the Packers' best defensive end has likely seen the end of his time in GB. If the lockout drags on into training camp, Jenkins might consider returning on a one-year deal, but by all reports there wasn't much contact between his agent and Ted Thompson even before the lockout began. Mike Neal will be tasked with filling Jenkins' formidable sack production in 2011, if he can stay healthy...

 Justin Harrell

Like the rest of the 2007 draft class, his contract is up. And... yeaaaaah.... the Packers would be crazy to give him a tender or any kind of second contract.

Brady Poppinga

 One of only three draftees remaining from the 2005 class (Pro Bowlers Aaron Rodgers and Nick Collins are the others), Poppinga's time might have come. He's coming off a blown knee, is 31 and plays a position where the Packers have a glut of players. Will be remembered for his stint as a Mormon missionary and his memorable quotes.

Nick Barnett

The Packers' starting MLB since 2003 and part-time nightclub owner has long been one of Green Bay's top defensive players. But with his base salary over $6 million in 2011, at a position where starters A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop are both sitting on long-term deals, Barnett will either take a pay cut or a trade to some other team. He's just 29 and hasn't played much due to season-ending injuries in '08 and '10, and could be a real find for a 4-3 team. Has two years remaining on his contract. Barnett will likely be one of the Packers' top priorities once the lockout ends.

Atari Bigby

The one-time mighty hitter in the secondary has been injured basically since 2007. With an expiring contract and Morgan Burnett slated to start next year, and Charlie Peprah around for depth's sake, Bigby might not even make it to training camp. Plus, apparently he's spending his time out of the country instead of working out, which will help exactly none.