NFL First-Round Picks: The Data

For a couple of years now I've been dumping my football posts on Oak Creek Patch, where I've been writing as a Local Voices blogger. Yesterday, I decided to start reposting my football posts that I've done there on this outlet. This post bookends yesterday's effort on the past five years of NFL first-round picks.

Total Players: 160 (including the No. 32 pick in 2008)

Gigantic Hits: 18 (11.25%)
Hits: 68 (42.5%)
(Total Good ‘Uns: 53.75%)
So-So/Too Soon To Tell: 40 (25%)
Whiff: 34 (21.25%)
(Total Bad ‘Uns: 46.25%)

2010:

Gigantic Hit

(2) Ndamukong Suh (DT, Lions)
(14) Earl Thomas (S, Seahawks)
(15) Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, Giants)

Hit

(3) Gerald McCoy (DT, Bucs)
(4) Trent Williams (OT, Redskins)
(5) Eric Berry (S, Chiefs)
(6) Russell Okung (T, Seahawks)
(7) Joe Haden (CB, Browns)
(9) C.J. Spiller (RB, Bills)
(12) Anthony Davis (OT, Niners)
(17) Mike Iupati (G, Niners)
(18) Maurkice Pouncey (C, Steelers)
(19) Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Falcons)
(21) Jermaine Gresham (TE, Bengals)
(22) Demaryius Thomas (WR, Broncos)
(23) Bryan Bulaga (OT, Packers)
(24) Dez Bryant (WR, Cowboys)

So-so/Too Soon To Tell

(1) Sam Bradford (QB, Rams)
(10) Tyson Alualu (DT, Jaguars)
(11) Ryan Mathews (RB, Chargers)
(13) Brandon Graham (DE, Eagles)
(16) Derrick Morgan (DE, Titans)
(20) Kareem Jackson (CB, Texans)
(26) Dan Williams (NT, Cardinals)
(27) Devin McCourty (CB, Patriots)*
(28) Jared Odrick (DT, Dolphins)
(29) Kyle Wilson (CB, Jets)
(32) Patrick Robinson (CB, Saints)

Whiff

(8) Rolando McClain (ILB, Raiders)
(25) Tim Tebow (QB, Broncos)
(30) Jahvid Best (RB, Lions)
(31) Jerry Hughes (DE/OLB, Colts)

2009:

Gigantic Hit

(22) Percy Harvin (WR, Vikings)
(26) Clay Matthews (OLB, Packers)

Hit

(1) Matthew Stafford (QB, Lions)
(6) Andre Smith (OT, Bengals)
(8) Eugene Monroe (OT, Jaguars)
(9) B.J. Raji (DT, Packers)
(10) Michael Crabtree (WR, Niners)
(13) Brian Orakpo (OLB, Redskins)
(14) Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Saints)
(15) Brian Cushing (ILB, Texans)
(17) Josh Freeman (QB, Bucs)
(19) Jeremy Maclin (WR, Eagles)
(20) Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Lions)
(21) Alex Mack (C, Browns)
(23) Michael Oher (OT, Ravens)
(25) Vontae Davis (CB, Dolphins)
(28) Eric Wood (C, Bills)
(29) Hakeem Nicks (WR, Giants)

So-So/Too Soon To Tell

(3) Tyson Jackson (DT, Chiefs)
(7) Darius Heyward-Bey (WR, Raiders)
(12) Knowshon Moreno (RB, Broncos)
(18) Robert Ayers (DE, Broncos)
(27) Donald Brown (RB, Colts)
(30) Kenny Britt (WR, Titans)
(31) Chris “Beanie” Wells (RB, Cardinals)
(32) Evander “Ziggy” Hood (DT, Steelers)

Whiff

(2) Jason Smith (OT, Rams)
(4) Aaron Curry (LB, Seahawks)
(5) Mark Sanchez (QB, Jets)
(11) Aaron Maybin (OLB, Bills)
(16) Larry English (OLB, Chargers)
(24) Peria Jerry (DT, Falcons)

2008:

Gigantic Hit

(1) Jake Long (OT, Dolphins)
(3) Matt Ryan (QB, Falcons)
(18) Joe Flacco (QB, Ravens)
(24) Chris Johnson (RB, Titans)

Hit

(2) Chris Long (DE, Rams)
(10) Jerod Mayo (ILB, Patriots)
(12) Ryan Clady (OT, Broncos)
(13) Jonathan Stewart (RB, Panthers)
(15) Branden Albert (OT, Chiefs)
(21) Sam Baker (OT, Falcons)
(26) Duane Brown (OT, Texans)
(30) Dustin Keller (TE, Jets)

So-So/Too Soon To Tell

(4) Darren McFadden (RB, Raiders)
(9) Keith Rivers (LB, Bengals)
(11) Leodis McKelvin (CB, Bills)
(15) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB, Cardinals)
(17) Gosder Cherilus (OT, Lions)
(20) Aqib Talib (CB, Bucs)
(22) Felix Jones (RB, Cowboys)
(23) Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Steelers)
(25) Mike Jenkins (CB, Cowboys)
(27) Antoine Cason (CB, Chargers)
(31) Kenny Phillips (S, Giants)

Whiff

(5) Glenn Dorsey (DT, Chiefs)
(6) Vernon Gholston (OLB, Jets)
(7) Sedrick Ellis (DT, Saints)
(8) Derrick Harvey (DE, Jaguars)
(14) Chris Williams (OT, Bears)
(19) Jeff Otah (OT, Panthers)
(28) Lawrence Jackson (DE, Seahawks)
(29) Kentwan Balmer (DT, Niners)
(32) Phillip Merling** (DT, Dolphins)

2007:

Gigantic Hit

(2) Calvin Johnson (WR, Lions)
(3) Joe Thomas (OT, Browns)
(7) Adrian Peterson (RB, Vikings)
(11) Patrick Willis (ILB, Niners)
(14) Darrelle Revis (CB, Jets)
(29) Ben Grubbs (G, Ravens)

Hit

(6) LaRon Landry (S, Redskins)
(12) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Bills)
(13) Adam Carriker (DT, Rams)
(15) Lawrence Timmons (ILB, Steelers)
(18) Leon Hall (CB, Bengals)
(19) Michael Griffin (S, Titans)
(20) Aaron Ross (CB, Giants)
(21) Reggie Nelson (S, Jaguars)
(23) Dwayne Bowe (WR, Chiefs)
(25) Jon Beason (ILB, Panthers)
(26) Anthony Spencer (OLB, Cowboys)
(28) Joe Staley (OT, Niners)
(31) Greg Olsen (TE, Bears)

So-So/Too Soon To Tell

(5) Levi Brown (OT, Cardinals)
(9) Ted Ginn Jr. (WR/KR, Dolphins)***
(10) Amobi Okoye (DT, Chiefs)
(24) Brandon Meriweather (S, Patriots)
(27) Robert Meacham (WR, Saints)

Whiff

(1) JaMarcus Russell (QB, Raiders)
(4) Gaines Adams (DE, Bucs)
(8) Jamaal Anderson (DE, Falcons)
(16) Justin Harrell (DT, Packers)
(17) Jarvis Moss (DE, Broncos)
(22) Brady Quinn (QB, Browns)
(30) Craig “Buster” Davis (WR, Chargers)
(32) Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Colts)

2006:

Gigantic Hit

(6) Vernon Davis (TE, Niners)
(12) Haloti Ngata (DT, Ravens)
(29) Nick Mangold (C, Jets)

Hit

(1) Mario Williams (DE, Texans)
(2) Reggie Bush (RB, Saints)
(4) D’Brickashaw Ferguson (OT, Jets)
(5) A.J. Hawk (sigh)**** (ILB, Packers)
(7) Michael Huff (S, Raiders)
(8) Donte’ Whitner (S, Bills)
(11) Jay Cutler (QB, Broncos)
(17) Chad Greenway (ILB, Vikings)
(19) Antonio Cromartie (CB, Chargers)
(20) Tamba Hali (OLB, Chiefs)
(23) Davin Joseph (G, Bucs)
(24) Jonathan Joseph (CB, Bengals)
(25) Santonio Holmes (WR, Steelers)
(27) DeAngelo Williams (RB, Panthers)
(28) Mercedes Lewis (TE, Jaguars)
(30) Joseph Addai (RB, Colts)
(32) Mathias Kiwanuka (DE, Giants)

So-So/Too Soon To Tell

(9) Ernie Sims (ILB, Lions)
(13) Kamerion Wimbley (OLB, Browns)
(14) Brodrick Bunkley (DT, Eagles)
(22) Manny Lawson (OLB, Niners)
(31) Kelly Jennings (CB, Seahawks)

Whiff

(3) Vince Young (QB, Titans)
(10) Matt Leinart (QB, Cardinals)
(15) Tye Hill (CB, Rams)
(16) Jason Allen (CB, Dolphins)
(18) Bobby Carpenter (OLB, Cowboys)
(21) Laurence Maroney (RB, Patriots)
(26) John McCargo (DT, Bills)

Analysis/Trivia

-How good are the Ravens? They got three Gigantic Hits (Joe Flacco, Haloti Ngata, Ben Grubbs) and one Hit (Michael Oher) in their four picks. Nobody had a better ratio, although the Jets, Lions, Vikings and Niners all collected two Gigantic Hits each.

-In fact, the Niners had four Hits (Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree, Joe Staley) to go along with their two Gigantic Hits (Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis); together with a So-So (Lawson) and a Whiff (Balmer), they led the NFL with eight first-round picks in five years. The Broncos were right behind with seven: Thomas (hit), Tebow (whiff), Moreno (so-so), Ayers (so-so), Clady (hit), Jarvis Moss (whiff), Cutler (hit).

-How awful are the Raiders? In five picks, they had one Hit (Michael Huff), two So-So (Darren McFadden, Darius Heyward-Bey) and two huge whiffs (JaMarcus Russell, Rolando McClain). I don't think anybody did worse.

-The Bears somehow had only two first-round picks: Greg Olsen (hit) and Chris Williams (whiff). They did give up two first-round picks to poach Jay Cutler (hit) from the Broncos, so I guess there's that.

-I was kind of stunned at the Browns, who collected a Gigantic Hit in Joe Thomas, plus two Hits in Joe Haden and Alex Mack. Yeah, Kamerion Wimbley was so-so and Brady Quinn was a bust, but you'd still expect them to finish better than fourth place in their division more often than twice in the last eight years. In fact, the last time they won their division was 1989, and the last time they spent two consecutive years better than fourth place was 2001-02.

-Sixteen "good" players have changed teams, including 15 of 68 "hits" (36.7%). The "hits" include Vontae Davis (Dolphins to Colts), Mario Williams (Texans to Bills), Reggie Bush (Saints to Dolphins), Donte' Whitner (Bills to Niners), Jay Cutler (Broncos to Bears), Antonio Cromartie (Chargers to Jets), Santonio Holmes (Steelers to Jets), Greg Olsen (Bears to Panthers), Joseph Addai (Colts to Patriots)*****, Jonathan Joseph (Bengals to Texans), LaRon Landry (Redskins to Jets), Marshawn Lynch (Bills to Seahawks), Adam Carriker (Rams to Redskins), Aaron Ross (Giants to Jaguars) and Reggie Nelson (Jaguars to Bengals).

-Ben Grubbs (Ravens to Saints) is the only Gigantic Hit to change teams, although Jake Long (Dolphins) and Joe Flacco (Ravens) are free agents this year. One can expect more players from '08-'09-'10 to do so as their rookie contracts expire; the bulk were from '06 and '07. In fact, 14 of the 30 "hits" from those years changed teams, a rate of 43% which may be closer to the NFL norm; from '08 to '10, among "hits" whose rookie contracts mostly either have yet to expire or expired this offseason, the rate is 2.6% (one player out of 38, Vontae Davis, who was traded last August).

 

*Now as later, players are listed as their college position, not what they subsequently converted to (safety, in McCourty's case).
**No. 32 pick in 2008; the Patriots forfeited their selection that year due to Spygate, so the first round had only 31 picks.
***Returning ability was treated as a bonus. If you have it, like Ginn, that's considered; if you don't, no big deal.
****I've never been a Hawk fan, but I couldn't justify downgrading him to "so-so".
*****Although he was cut before the regular season.