James Jones or Jordy Nelson: Who Should Get Paid?

The Packers have a decision to make in their wide receiver corps.

Ted Thompson loves his wideouts, and one of the Packers’ biggest strengths since he came on board has been an extraordinarily deep group of wide receivers. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver starting, and James Jones and Jordy Nelson backing them up, the wideouts helped take Green Bay all the way to the Super Bowl.

Now it’s contract time, and we have to look at the overall group. Driver will likely retire within the next year or two, and his production has fallen off to the point where he’s more of a No. 3 now than a No. 2. James Jones is a free agent, while Nelson’s rookie contract ends after this year. Whoever gets the contract will eventually replace Driver as the No. 2. So assuming they can’t pay both*, whom should the Packers sign to a long-term deal?

To answer that question, let’s take an in-depth look at both receivers.

 James Jones #89

Over four years (one mostly curtailed by a knee injury), Jones has caught 149 passes for 2,069 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 13.9 yards par catch. He has worked primarily from the No. 3 slot on the depth chart, and has fumbled six times. He led the team this year in average yards after the catch, at 5.16 per, and had two 100-yard games (Minnesota, Dallas). He had one 100-yard game in 2009 (Tampa Bay), one in ’08 (Jacksonville) and one in ’07 (Denver).

Jones definitely possesses more natural talent and speed than Nelson. He’s extremely good at catching low-thrown balls and bailing his QB out on the scramble drill (40 first downs in ’10 to Nelson’s 18). According to the Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn, he’s “built like a brick outhouse” and “able to snatch the ball as well as anyone on the roster”; witness his the one-handed touchdown against Minnesota or the fade route over Atlanta’s Brent Grimes for examples.

He’s also prone to drops at the worst possible times. Jones dropped a slant route against Dallas and go routes against Miami, the Jets, the Giants, the Eagles and the Steelers that likely would’ve all gone for touchdowns. In addition, a Rodgers interception against the Dolphins and a Flynn pick vs. the Patriots happened when Jones appeared to quit on the routes. Jones has the speed to outrun the defense on go routes, but he drops too many passes overall (17 in the last two years).

Jordy Nelson #87

Nelson has mostly worked out of the No. 4 slot for the past three years, catching 100 balls for 1,268 yards, six touchdowns and a 12.7 ypc average. He dropped four of 83 targeted passes in his first two years before dropping 10 of 92 this year (inc. playoffs). His résumé includes four drops in the Super Bowl, but more importantly, nine catches for 140 yards and one TD. Also has six fumbles in four seasons, including four lost. Has just one 100-yard game besides the Super Bowl, catching four for 124 against the Giants in ’10.

Nelson’s biggest strength is knowing when to step it up. Played extremely well against the Giants and in the four-game postseason, Super Bowl included. Also made the clutch touchdown catch on fourth down at Atlanta (regular season). His breaks aren’t particularly crisp, but he’s big enough (6’3”. 217 lbs) to effectively box defenders out with his body and keep them away from the football. Definitely the best run blocker among the WRs. Does a good job evading contact at the line of scrimmage. His route-running, hands and agility are all pretty average.

The Verdict?

I honestly don’t have a definitive answer. When I started this, I kept thinking about Jones’ copious drops, and thought that Nelson would be a better, more consistent option. But Jones is more talented and a better possession-type receiver than Nelson is at this stage, and also runs crisper routes.

Both players have benefited from their matchups against No. 3 and 4 corners, and of coverage slanted towards Jennings and Jermichael Finley. I think, however, that Nelson is a bit more suited to deal with defenses paying more attention to him. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of a contract offer they make to Jones, and whether they value Nelson’s big-game production more than they do Jones’ superior potential.

 

Best guess: Nelson.

*Ted Thompson will need cap space to sign players like Clay Matthews, Josh Sitton and Jermichael Finley to long-term deals in the next year or two. Also, Greg Jennings’ contract expires after 2012, so assuming that the Packers can pick only one receiver is a reasonable assessment.

Packers Draft Trends

After six drafts and one Super Bowl championship, I think that Packers general manager Ted Thompson has amassed a fair enough body of work that we can try and draw some conclusions. I'm going to present the draftees, point out some trends and see if I can make some tentative predictions about his 2011 draft from a positional standpoint. (All hail Wikipedia!) If you're a Packers fan and/or already know this stuff, feel free to skip the following lists.

2005
1. Aaron Rodgers, QB (Pro Bowl)
2. Nick Collins, FS (Pro Bowl)
2. Terrence Murphy, WR (retired; spinal stenosis)
4. Marviel Underwood, CB (out of NFL, defined here as 1+ years without being on a NFL team)
4. Brady Poppinga, OLB
5. Junius Coston, C (out of NFL)
5. Mike Hawkins, CB (out of NFL)
6. Mike Montgomery, DE (free agent)
6. Craig Bragg, WR (out of NFL)
7. Kurt Campbell, CB (out of NFL)
7. Will Whitticker, G (out of NFL)

2006
1. A.J. Hawk, LB
2. Daryn Colledge, G
2. Greg Jennings, WR (Pro Bowl)
3. Abdul Hodge, LB (Carolina)
3. Jason Spitz, G-C
4. Cory Rodgers, WR (out of NFL)
4. Will Blackmon, CB (free agent)
5. Ingle Martin, QB (out of NFL)
5. Tony Moll, T (Baltimore)
6. Johnny Jolly, DT (suspended)
6. Tyrone Culver, S (Miami)
7. Dave Tollefson, DE (NY Giants)
(Signed Tramon Williams, UFA)

2007
1. Justin Harrell, DT
2. Brandon Jackson, RB
3. James Jones, WR
3. Aaron Rouse, S (Omaha Nighthawks; played for Cardinals in 2010)
4. Allen Barbre, G (Miami)
5. David Clowney, WR (Carolina)
6. Korey Hall, LB/FB
6. Desmond Bishop, LB
6. Mason Crosby, K
7. DeShawn Wynn, RB (New Orleans)
7. Clark Harris, TE (Cincinnati)

2008
2. Jordy Nelson, WR
2. Brian Brohm, QB (Buffalo)
2. Patrick Lee, CB
3. Jermichael Finley, TE
4. Jeremy Thompson, DE (retired, spinal stenosis)
4. Josh Sitton, G
5. Breno Giacomini, T (Seattle)
7. Matt Flynn, QB
7. Brett Swain, WR

2009
1. B.J. Raji, DT/NT
1. Clay Matthews, OLB (Pro Bowl)
4. T. J. Lang, G/T
5. Quinn Johnson, FB
5. Jamon Meredith, OT (Buffalo)
6. Jarius Wynn, DE
6. Brandon Underwood, CB
7. Brad Jones, LB

2010
1. Bryan Bulaga, T
2. Mike Neal, DE
3. Morgan Burnett, S
5. Andrew Quarless, TE
5. Marshall Newhouse, C/G
6. James Starks, RB
7. C.J. Wilson, DE

33 of Thompson's 58 drafted players remain on the Packers' roster or IR list. Two were forced to retire due to medical conditions, eight are out of the NFL, eleven are on the rosters of other NFL teams (Aaron Rouse is on a UFL team), two are free agents and one has been suspended from the league. Just two players (Johnny Jolly, Brandon Underwood) have had legal trouble in the past six years, a testament to the character of the players Thompson has drafted. Four of his draftees (Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Nick Collins, Clay Matthews) have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, along with two free agents (Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams).

Players Selected by Position

Players are arranged in descending order of their contributions to the team.

QBs: 4 (Rodgers, Flynn, Martin/Brohm)

WRs: 8 (Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Clowney, Swain, Bragg/Rodgers/Murphy)
RBs: 3 (Jackson, Starks, Wynn)
TEs: 3 (Finley, Quarless, Harris)
FBs: 2 (Hall, Johnson)
OL*: 12 (Sitton, Colledge, Spitz, Bulaga, Lang, Moll, Newhouse/Coston/Whitticker/Barbre/Giacomini/Meredith)
CB: 6 (Lee, Blackmon, B. Underwood, M. Underwood/Hawkins/Campbell)
S: 4 (Collins, Rouse, Burnett, Culver)
ILB: 2 (Bishop, Hodge)
OLB: 4 (Matthews, Hawk, Poppinga, Jones)
DL: 9 (Raji, Jolly, Neal, Wilson, Wynn, Montgomery, Tollefson, Harrell, Thompson)
K: 1 (Crosby)

*(Since many of Thompson's O-line and D-line draftees have played several positions, this seems like the most hassle-free way to do the list.)

Thompson has selected just three running backs (Jackson 2nd, Wynn 7th, Starks 6th). He likes to aim high for WRs, having spent second-round picks on Murphy, Jennings and Nelson and a third on Jones.  Craig Bragg (6th), Cory Rodgers (4th), David Clowney (5th) and Brett Swain (7th) round out the crew at WR, the most players Thompson has selected at any single position.

Thompson selected three cornerbacks in his first-ever draft, all of whom failed. Perhaps discouraged, he took a total of three in the next five drafts, preferring instead to find CBs on the street (Williams, Shields) or through free agency (Woodson).

Until 2008, Thompson had a reputation for only trading down in the draft. That year he traded up to get Jeremy Thompson in the fourth round, and has done it each year since, nabbing Clay Matthews in 2009 and Morgan Burnett in '10. Thompson has made only two player-for-player trades that I can recall, shipping Tony Moll to Baltimore in 2009 for Derrick Martin and swapping Samkon Gado for Vernand Morency. He also famously acquired Ryan Grant from the Giants for a sixth-round pick. 

Thompson likes to go after offensive linemen in the middle rounds of the draft, spending picks on Sitton, Lang, Moll, Giacomini, Coston, Barbre and Meredith in rounds 4-6. Of these, only Sitton and Lang appear to have stuck.

Thompson has piled up a lot of late-round picks over the years, by way of compensatory picks or trades, which is one reason why the Packers average 9.6 selections per year. The Packers have had 28 picks in the last six years in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. From these rounds have come five starters (Bishop, Crosby, Hall, Jones, Jolly) and three talented backups (Flynn, Wilson, Starks) who are likely to start at some point. Bishop is probably the single best player from these rounds, closely followed by Flynn.

While Thompson hasn't regularly found talent at the bottom of the draft, at the top he's been outstanding. Only one of his first-round picks has been a bust (Harrell), with every other one starting and two making trips to the Pro Bowl. Rodgers, Jennings, Collins, Matthews, Raji and Finley are top-five players in the entire league at their respective positions, and Neal, Burnett, Colledge, Jackson, Jones, Nelson and Spitz have either been decent starters or excelled as backups. Tally them up and you can say that Thompson has had success with 13 of his top 21 picks, which is a figure most GMs would kill to have.

Players Selected by Round
(Chronological order)

1. Rodgers, Hawk, Harrell, Raji, Matthews, Bulaga
2. Collins, Murphy, Colledge, Jennings, Jackson, Nelson, Brohm, Lee, Neal
3. Hodge, Spitz, Jones, Rouse, Finley, Burnett
4. Underwood, Poppinga, Rodgers, Blackmon, Barbre, Sitton, Lang
5. Coston, Hawkins, Martin, Moll, Clowney, Giacomini, Johnson, Meredith, Quarless, Newhouse
6. Montgomery, Bragg, Jolly, Culver, Hall, Bishop, Crosby, Wynn, Underwood, Starks
7. Campbell, Whitticker, Tollefson, Wynn, Harris, Flynn, Swain, Jones, Wilson

Finally, Thompson has shown a tendency to defy the draftniks who label teams' biggest needs and how they should be addressed. He passed on selecting a cornerback or an outside linebacker in the 2010 draft, ignoring pundits' judgment that that was the team's biggest need. What happened? Super Bowl.

With that said, I offer my tentative conclusion that Thompson will go wide receiver, offensive tackle or defensive end in the first round. He will likely address at least two of these positions during the first three rounds of the draft. With an incredibly deep roster already in place, don't be surprised to see Thompson make a trade to get into the second round again to snag a favored player.

With the Packers' first-round pick I'd like to see him take any of these players, all of whom have been available at #32 in some of the mock drafts I've seen: RB Mark Ingram, WR Jonathan Baldwin, OT Benjamin Ijalena, DE J.J. Watt, OLB Akeem Ayers, DE Jabaal Sheard, G Danny Watkins, G-C Mike Pouncey or DE Cameron Heyward.

What Will the Packers' Defensive Line Look Like in 2011?

Johnny Jolly's latest boneheaded decision to use and possibly sell codeine has unequivocally ended his playing career with Green Bay. A second suspension from the NFL wouldn't be out of the question, but the greater question is whether he'll be able to avoid jail time after his second offense... and there's absolutely no reason to keep him on the roster now.

So, what now for the Packers? Fans had speculated that Jolly could provide a boost to the Packers' defensive line corps, which isn't the surest thing going into the season. Let's take a look at our players and their prospects for 2011.

First, The Goners:

Cullen Jenkins, #77, DE: 6'2", 302 lbs. Age: 30. 

 Jenkins, one of the team's few remaining players from the Mike Sherman era, will almost certainly leave the Packers in free agency. He's played out the four-year contract he signed in 2006, and while he nearly always had some sort of nagging injury, Jenkins registered a career-high seven sacks this year while starting just eight games. In addition, profootballfocus.com judges that he had the second-highest percentage of pressures per rush of any interior lineman. The Packers have shown little interest in re-signing him, and he can play virtually any position except nose tackle (since 2006, Jenkins has played as a 4-3 DE, 4-3 DT, 3-4 DE and 3-4 nickel rusher). Jenkins will get a huge payday someplace, and the Packers seem content to move on with whom they have.

Justin Harrell, #91, DE: 6'4", 315 lbs. Age: 27. 

Oooh, boy. Well, unless the Packers are completely insane, Harrell will get no more than a look in training camp and will not make the opening day roster. Despite having every physical tool you could want from a DE, Harrell has not recorded a sack in four years of play and has started only two games (2007). In addition, he's been active for just seven games in the past three years due to various injuries. No, he'll be released, and good riddance to him.

The Big Names

 B.J. Raji, #90, NT/Nickel Rusher: 6'2", 337 lbs. Age: 24

After a nondescript rookie season in which he was hindered by a high ankle sprain, "The Freezer" moved from DE to NT, recorded 6.5 sacks and had an unforgettable pick-six against Chicago in the NFC Championship game. Because the Packers played in their nickel defense about 75% of the time last year, Raji lined up more often as a nickel rusher and not at his usual nose tackle spot. He was a rock at any position, however, and often played more than 60 snaps a game. In the first game against the Vikings this year, he played the entire game as one of only three healthy linemen (Cullen Jenkins was a game-time scratch) and performed well. He's the surest thing on the Packers' line right now.

Ryan Pickett, #79, DE: 6'2", 340 lbs. Age: 31

 "Big Grease", a ten-year veteran originally drafted by St. Louis, isn't used as much under Dom Capers as he was in the days of the 4-3 defense. More run-stuffer than pass-rusher, Pickett recorded just one sack last year in limited playing time, as Capers tended to send Jenkins and Raji onto the field in nickel packages. Pickett signed a four-year contract last year and will make a modest $2.7 million in 2011, but he isn't really needed at DE except for depth purposes. His base salary will be $4.5 million in 2012 and $5.4 million in 2013, and it'll be interesting to see if he's still in the Packers' plans at that time. It's important to note that Pickett is looked up to as a leader in the Packers' locker room, particularly on the defensive line.

Howard Green, #95, DE: 6'2", 340. Age: 32

Identical to Pickett in height and weight, Green was signed just before the Packers' victory over New York and provided depth throughout the season. He's kind of just a big guy without much short-area quickness, but he proved difficult to move against the run and made the biggest play of his career in Super Bowl XLV, bulling through Steelers guard Chris Kemonatu to knock down Ben Roethlisberger and cause an interception. Green was picked up for a song as a "street" free agent, and there's no reason the Packers wouldn't bring him back in camp. With a summer of conditioning and game-planning, he's worth at least an extended look as a reserve.

Mike Neal, #96, DE: 6'3", 294 lbs. Age: 23

There's a lot to like about Mike Neal. He's phenomenally strong, and although he was pretty raw in his rookie training camp, he appeared to be developing a good arsenal of pass-rush moves. I remember watching the Green Bay-Washington game in person and just being awed at how he, Jenkins and Raji were dominating the Redskins' offensive line. After the game, Mike Shanahan said that that Packers' defensive line corps was the best one in the league.
The problem is that Neal couldn't stay healthy. After a solid training camp, Neal suffered a rare abdominal injury and was out for the first three games of the season. He forced a fumble in the fourth game (Detroit) and recorded a sack in the fifth (Washington), but injured his shoulder and went on injured reserve. It's a bit early to call him injury-prone, but, well... The Packers appear to be counting on him to replace Jenkins, which he is completely able to do, in my opinion. But if he never gets on the field, the Packers better have a backup plan before the season starts.

C.J. Wilson, #98, DE: 6'3", 290 lbs. Age: 23

A promising rookie, Wilson was fairly stout against the run in training camp and then bulked up as the year went on. He appeared in garbage time against the Falcons in the divisional playoff round and recorded a sack of Matt Ryan, the Packers' fifth of the game. He was active in 15 regular-season games and actually started in the Super Bowl. Wilson was used a lot during a four-game stretch when Jenkins was injured and showed some potential as a hard-nosed run defender. We'll see what he can do in this training camp, but he has every chance to earn a starting spot.

Jarius Wynn, #94, DE: 6'3", 285 lbs. Age: 24

Beaten out by Wilson for the last spot on the line in 2010, Wynn was resigned almost immediately after Harrell tore his ACL in the first game. He's hung around the Packers for two seasons now but hasn't shown all that much; he's not stout against the run, and while he does have some pass-rush capability (he recorded the only sack of Brett Favre in the first Vikings game), Wynn simply appears too light to play as a 3-4 DE. He'll hang around in training camp this year, but if the Packers draft a DE (as seems likely), Wynn will be the first one to get cut.

Sum Up: What To Do?

The Packers will have a passel of decent players (Pickett, Wilson, Green) on the line, but if Neal gets hurt, this would be a pretty nondescript group except for Raji. Neal and Pickett are penciled in as the starting 3-4 DEs, but drafting another player with pass-rush capability would enable this line to dominate opposing offenses. I've come around to the idea of 'drafting to a position of strength'; the Packers aren't exactly weak on the line, but by beefing up their depth here they could conceivably be unstoppable. Adding a player like Corey Liuget, Phil Taylor, Cameron Heyward or J.J. Watt could do that.

Should the Packers Take Brooks Reed at #32 Overall? Eh...

Brooks Reed is one of those prospects that's been getting a lot of hype in recent weeks in Packers circles, mostly because ESPN's Mel Kiper has the Green and Gold picking him at No. 32 in his most recent mock draft. The idea seems to have caught on among Packer fans, who might be seeing the Arizona defensive end as Clay Matthews 2.0. Reed certainly looks the part; physically, he's about as tall as Matthews and ten-ish pounds lighter, has the same flowing blond hair and displays some of Matthews' hyperaggressiveness in rushing the passer. For a variety of reasons, though, I'm not sold on Reed as our first-round pick just yet.

From the scouting reports and YouTube highlights (in a minute) that I've seen, Reed gives a ton of effort on every play, and possesses ungodly short-area quickness that helps him a great deal on the pass-rush. But that's about where his pass-rushing ends. He can bull-rush the devil out of a running back or a fullback, but he doesn't appear to have developed a lot of moves yet. Take a look at this highlight reel of his that I found:

When he slices around the corner, he looks hard to stop, but most of the tackles in the video never seem to get a hand on him. I'd be concerned about whether he can get past NFL tackles who have better feet and the ability to control his rushes. You can see in the video that a few of his sacks come when he's lined up against running backs, who simply don't block him, and then there's one against Iowa (black and gold) where the guard and the back both ignore him and let him through!

Here's another clip, this time rushing from a linebacker position:

You can see that the tackle takes a while to get his initial punch on him, and then there's nothing he could've done but hold him. The clip speaks to the explosiveness that Reed has in getting past tackles, but I think it also shows how much he relies on that explosiveness to make his pressures. He can bull-rush, that's certain, but that'll only take you so far against NFL tackles.

Obviously there's no measuring the impact that time and coaching could have on him, and one suspects that Kevin Greene and Co. could improve his game considerably. But right now, I don't think he'd be quite as impressive in a Packers uniform as he looks on tape.

There are a number of other things he has going for him--he's aggressive, competitive, goes to the whistle--and some things that aren't; the reports are that he tends to overrun the play and is a real straight-line guy. Watch this clip of him vs. Iowa. (I'm not cherry-picking clips here, by the way; these are the only three I could find on YouTube).

You can see on the very first play, he gets a free release off the line and has a straight shot at the QB. The QB turns and runs, Reed can't change direction and misses him, and then takes himself out of the play as the QB scrambles for a first down. There's a couple more like that, where Reed seems to have trouble changing direction in the backfield. Based on this, it's hard to figure him doing all that well in coverage as a LB.

Iowa was statistically one of his better games (five tackles, two sacks), but the sacks came against air or RBs. When the tackle gets his hands on him, Reed has a hard time getting off the block. He displays a decent spin move, however, and is able to bull-rush the tackle at times.

The biggest question is, will he be able to stand up and play as an outside linebacker? All the Clay Matthews comparisons tend to ignore the fact that Matthews played a hybrid LB/DE position at USC and thus had some experience that helped him in Capers' 3-4. Reed, on the other hand, was a DE for most of his college career. The Packers would have to assess whether Reed has the athleticism to play OLB. It's not necessarily a matter of what the coaches can teach him, so much as it's about what he can physically do.

Despite all of the above caveats, I do like Reed as a pass-rushing prospect and I think that with time and coaching, he could develop into a solid edge rusher, a bit like Aaron Kampman was in 2009. I'm not sure, however, that he's worth the #32 overall pick. If Thompson traded back into the second round and maybe picked up an additional second- or third-rounder in the process, I wouldn't have any problem with the Packers selecting him there.

Midseason Report: The Five Biggest Surprises of 2009

There are some reassuring certainties, in life and football, that will never change. The Lions will always suck, the Cowboys will always be a collection of the world's greatest douchenozzles and Peyton Manning will throw for 4,000 yards every year until they nail shut his coffin, just to name a few. However, every year there are a number of dazzling success stories and abysmal failures in the NFL, and luckily for fans of attempted football comedy I'm here to recount them. Let's go down the list, shall we:


No. 5: Darren Sharper seems to have a thing for proving his critics wrong in the most emphatic way possible. After he played eight years for the Packers and burned his name into many of the club record books (as well as heading to the Pro Bowl two times), Green Bay released him after the 2004 season, thinking he was all out of gas as a player. Sharper immediately turned around, signed with the Packers' archenemies, the Minnesota Vikings, and then proceeded to crap all over the Packers by playing so well he went to the '05 Pro Bowl. Sharper went on to play three more years for the Vikings until they, like the Packers before them, released him in the 2008 offseason. Why? What else: he was all washed up. Of course, Sharper signed with the New Orleans Saints and proceeded to tear shit up. As of this writing, he has picked off seven passes and leads the league with three of 'em returned for scores. Oh, yeah, and his Saints are 7-0 through seven games. Go you, Darren.


No. 4: The 1-6 Titans and the 3-4 Panthers. Combined into one entry because of both of their ridiculous light blue uniforms, these two teams were the class of their respective conferences last year. The Titans went into the playoffs with a 13-3 record, one of the best defenses in football and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The Panthers, meanwhile, settled for the No. 2 seed and had the third-best rushing attack in the game. Collectively, the two of them had shit made. Unfortunately for them, the Titans were ejected in the first round of the playoffs by the Baltimore Ravens and the Panthers melted down in their first round, with quarterback Jake Delhomme throwing five interceptions (and losing a fumble) as the Cardinals stomped all over the unlucky Panthers.

This year: The Titans became the laughingstock of the league as they started out 0-6. Sure, their defensive coordinator had left to go coach another team with absurd blue uniforms (the Detroit Lions at least try for dignity by throwing in some black) and their star defensive tackle went to the Redskins in free agency. But never mind that, right? Everything's going to be okay, right? They have Kerry Collins at quarterback!

Well, since it happened to be Collins' fifteenth year, it's not much of a surprise that he folded in the first half of this year. Their excellent secondary was reduced to crap, their offense blew up under a bevy of Collins-led turnovers and they lost six games in a row, culminating in a 59-0 shellacking by the New England Patriots. After which they picked themselves up, won one game and then running back Chris Johnson (the only man who can look like a total badass wearing powder blue and white) declared that his team was going to the playoffs. Yeah. Okay.

Meanwhile, the Panthers were struggling with their own quarterback shitshow. Remember how Jake Delhomme had a total meltdown in the divisional playoffs last year? Well, the curse apparently carried over to this year, since he's thrown a league-leading 13 interceptions and lost two fumbles already. But since they just signed him to a five-year, $36 million (or something like that; they all get a little fuzzy for me once they pass twenty million freaking dollars) contract extension, they're basically stuck with him as the starter. You can guess how well that went as the Panthers started 0-3.

However, all is not lost: The Panthers have since picked themselves up to win three of four games. Sure, two of them were against some of the league's worst teams in Tampa Bay and Washington (don't even get me started on Washington), but a win's a win, right? Plus, much more importantly, guess who their other win (and the latest game) was against? Yep, the Arizona Cardinals. And not only that, but their grizzled, veteran quarterback (Delhomme's in his 11th season, so he's one too) Kurt Warner threw-guess what?-five interceptions and lost a fumble. Panthers fans can only hope that the curse has passed on to some other poor sap so they can get back to the business of winning.


No. 3: Cedric Benson. This guy was a total bust when he was first drafted, and I do mean bust. He was the fourth pick in the draft in 2005 (for those who don't know, the draft has some 276 picks each year. That makes Ced a big deal) to the Chicago Bears, and was expected to be basically the second coming of Walter Payton when they brought him in. Benson held out through all of training camp, argued with his coaches and was arrested twice in five weeks in 2007. After serving as a backup to Thomas Jones for two years, he was gifted the starting job in '07 when Jones was traded to the New York Jets. To no one's surprise, he turned out to suck and was released following the '07 season.

This being a considerable shock to Benson, I can only surmise what he might have thought. I'd imagine it'd be two things: One, "Hey, all of my problems have basically been inside my head. Nobody gets drafted No. 4 overall without the tools to play the game, so all I have to do is figure out my mental issues and I can be groovy!" Two, "Where in the league do talented fuckups always, ALWAYS get a second chance?" Yes, you guessed it, readers; the Cincinnati Bengals. Benson signed with the Bengals for one year in 2008 and performed so well that they gave him a two-year, $7 million contract shortly thereafter.

The rest is currently being written in the form of history. Benson is fourth in the NFL with 720 rushing yards and is also one of only two backs in football to currently be averaging over 100 rushing yards per game (The other is the aforementioned gigafuck, Chris Johnson.) and his Bengals are 5-2 and leading the AFC North (former Pro Bowl QB Carson Palmer having returned from a season-ending elbow injury doesn't hurt either). Best of all, he got to play the Bears two weeks ago and ran for a career-high 189 yards and one touchdown. As I can only say to a guy who gashes the shit out of a division rival: You go, sir.


No. 2: Brett Favre. Much as I wanted to bump him up the list to No. 4, Favre deserves to be down here as the second biggest surprise of the year. Admit it: You thought he was washed up. In the wake of a tumultous season with the Jets that culminated in a 1-4 meltdown and the Jets missing the playoffs, plus a major shoulder injury, people were questioning whether Favre still had the magic touch. Hell, we were full-on shouting it in the direction of Hattiesburg, Miss. When he signed with the Vikings, we all figured he'd just be handing it off to scary motherfucker Adrian Peterson forty times a game, throwing a lot of short, safe passes and a lot more picks.

Well, so much for that idea. Favre currently co-leads the league with 16 touchdown passes and his completion percentage is fourth in the NFL. Plus, he's only thrown three picks, the fourth fewest in the league after you strike two guys that are no longer starting for their teams. Hell, one of the guys above him missed a bunch of games (Donovan McNabb) and another threw his only pick on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half, when it didn't mean shit (Kyle Orton). Oh, yeah, and the hated Vikings are now 7-1 and in position to run away with the NFC North. Sure, it's still early and Favre tends to wear down at the end of the year, but with a nice big heated dome to play in when the weather gets cold, you have to wonder just how far the Vikings can go.


No. 1: The 6-1 Broncos. Admit it, you're fucking shocked. I was, too, when the Broncos rocketed to 6-0 on the strength of their defense. Their defense! Hell, they were ranked 29th in the league a year ago! They were three teams away from giving up the most yards per game in the league (at a whopping 374.6 per)! This year, through seven games and a bye week, they are ranked first. Yes, you read that right. This year it's 266.7 yards per game, good enough to make them the best defense in football right now. What the hell changed?
Oh, and lest we forget, the Broncos endured perhaps the most tumultuous offseason in recent memory, up to and including the freaking Brett Favre shit-hurricane that hit Green Bay in 2008. In the 2009 offseason, it was the Broncos' turn. Understanding just what happened goes back to the last three games of the 2008 season, when the Broncos were leading the AFC North with an 8-5 record with three games to play and a three-game lead in their division over the 5-8 San Diego Chargers. All they needed was one win to clinch the division title and go to the playoffs. The Broncos then proceeded to choke it away by losing the last three games and allowing the Chargers to steal the title, thus becoming the first team in NFL history to fail that badly.

Just two days after that, the Broncos fired their two-time Super Bowl winning head coach, Mike Shanahan, and replaced him with a New England Patriots assistant coach named Josh McDaniels. Practically McDaniels' first move was to talk to the Patriots and the Chiefs about a possible three-team trade involving shipping the reigning franchise quarterback in Bronco-land, Jay Cutler, out of town. Cutler learned about it, got pissed and demanded to be shipped out of town, which after three weeks of media fuckstorm, he was. To the Chicago Bears. In return for draft picks and Kyle Orton, a middling Bears QB. Meanwhile, top receiver Brandon Marshall freaked out and started demanding a trade of his own. McDaniels and new GM Brian Xanders capped it off by drafting running back Knowshon Moreno with the No. 12 overall pick in the draft, eschewing badly needed defensive players, then went out and signed a shitton of random free agents to the point where reporters couldn't even keep track of the new guys.

Geez.

So what the hell changed? Well, among those free agents were a ton of new defensive players, including veteran safety Brian Dawkins, who was let go by Philadelphia and is currently feeling his oats ala Darren Sharper. Broncos owner Pat Bowlen also went out and got the premier defensive coordinator talent on the market, ex-49ers head coach Mike Nolan. Put that together with two new cornerbacks and a linebacker from the first two rounds of the draft, add the fact that McDaniels was hired because he helped create the megafuck Patriots offense that set all kinds of records in 2007 and kept on rolling in 2008 with a backup QB, and the Broncos are suddenly dangerous bastards. They're leading the AFC West, in fact. Only the second half of the season will tell what'll happen, with them and with all of the above guys and teams, but if it's anything like this first half it will be interesting as all hell. I'll leave it to the football gods to apportion failure and success. Later, folks.

Packers vs. Vikings; Different venue, same bloody result.

You want to be mad at the Vikings, you know? You want to cuss them out and call them the Queens, the Queers, the nameless fucktards on the other side of the western border. You want to be mad at them because they have a habit of picking up expatriate Packers, most recently our esteemed quarterback who just waltzed into Lambeau Field like it was three years ago and threw for four touchdowns to beat his former team, 38-26. You want to hate them because they're looking like they might march through the NFC this year en route to a division title, and maybe even more then that.

But they're good people. They really are. This isn't the Love Boat fiasco of 2005. This isn't Randy Moss fake-mooning the Packer faithful. This is Adrian Peterson, a class act if ever there was one, making the Packers pay with a long screen pass to set up the decisive score from Favre to Berrian, who wasn't even supposed to play in this game. This is Percy Harvin, this year's DeSean Jackson without the hubris, becoming such a gigafuck that the Packers squib-kicked in the third quarter just to avoid giving him the ball. The Vikings just have more stars on the team; Jared Allen, who cemented his trip to the Pro Bowl this year by racking up 7.5 sacks in two nationally televised games against the Green and Gold; Sidney Rice, who was going to be the latest high pick in the draft to bottom out until Favre arrived this year and inexplicably resurrected him; Steve Hutchinson, the all-pro guard who helped create an impregnable wall for Green Bay's defenders in both games, holding the Packers without a sack in either contest.

And then there's Favre. Brett Lorenzo Favre, who by all appearances has junked everything that got him run out of Green Bay and amplified everything that kept him there for sixteen years. Favre, throwing into double coverage and coming away with the completion. Favre, tossing four touchdown passes and withstanding a furious Green Bay rally in the third quarter. Favre, jumping to check on a fallen Greg Jennings-he who caught No. 421- when he came down in front of him on the Vikings' sideline. Everything he was ripped for in the Green Bay and national media-not being a leader, throwing interceptions-he has apparently resolved. Favre, breaking the hearts of the Packer faithful one more time before finding Berrian for the game-clinching TD.

And the Packers wanted this one so badly. The fans wanted it, the team, the coaches wanted it, I wanted it so badly. And you could tell on the field. They were that boxer that, however unmatched against a more skilled opponent, battled to the end. The Vikings shut down Ryan Grant (ten carries, 30 yards). They sacked Rodgers six times. They raced up and down the field as if on jetpacks on special teams. And we were still fracking in it! Rodgers tossing two touchdowns to Spencer Havner, the converted LB's fifth and sixth career catches. Greg Jennings catching another score despite having a Viking in his shirt. Driver and Jennings both returning after devastating hits. Emotionally and physically, the Packers gave everything they had, and that just wasn't enough.

Packers vs. Vikings Post-Game Wrapup

Post-game Packers vs. Vikings thoughts:

-Through four games, the Packers have five sacks. They were held without one tonight. They have two from Cullen Jenkins (defensive end) and one each from linebackers Aaron Kampman, Clay Matthews and Brandon Chillar. What happened to the pressure? Favre was allowed to sit there for four, five and even a ridiculous 7.34 seconds and throw the ball untouched. Any QB in the league can complete passes with that kind of time, not that he needed it to beat the gaping holes in our zone coverage. Maybe it’s time to start having Al Harris press more, because he was getting beaten all day by Bernard Berrian. Derrick Martin appeared to be at fault on the touchdown to Berrian.

-Eight sacks is a travesty in so many ways. All I can say is that Rodgers held the ball too long. Against another defense or with better linemen, ‘too long’ might be 4-5 seconds. Against this defense and with these tackles, it was three seconds. He has to realize that and go to whatever open man he sees first. I remember at least two sacks where he pumped once and got hit as he was reloading. There’s no time for that shit. Rodgers was running headlong into linebackers instead of scrambling. Even on his one scramble for 12 yards, he waited near the line of scrimmage for someone to get open before finally tucking and running. That speaks of him feeling the pressure and needing to throw.

-Welcome to the NFL, Jermichael Finley. Finley’s 62-yard catch and run for a score and his later 37-yard completion were masterful. Finley took a step closer to taking the No. 1 tight end position. He made a good catch on the ball at the goal line but was wrapped up by a LB before he could get to the end zone. There was a point where Finley was beating whatever safety he was matched up on. It’s nice to see that one of the pieces from the preseason has fallen into place.

-What has happened to Greg Jennings? In the past three games, he has a total of just six catches. Yes, the two against the Rams combined for 103 yards, but you have to wonder why Rodgers isn’t getting the ball to his No. 1 wideout more. Is he not open enough, or what’s going on? Last year Jennings dominated teams through the first six weeks of the season. He has done nothing of the kind this year.

-Another week, another good game from Ryan Grant. Grant has flown somewhat under the radar this season and has yet to reach 100 yards in a game, limited as he is by McCarthy’s playcalls that heavily favor the pass (only five runs in the first half this time around). Still, Grant ran hard for 51 yards on 11 carries and, for the first time in a long time, showed some pop as a receiver. He caught three screens that went for first downs, and on one of the final desperation drives made a great catch over the middle and picked up 15 yards, the first down and got out of bounds to stop the clock. That was as good of a play as I’ve seen him make this year.

-The officials certainly didn’t help the Packers this time around, flagging them for 7 penalties for 57 yards. While that’s a marked improvement (sadly), that still cannot be tolerated. Six of them came in the first half and all were costly. Woodson’s phantom PI call in the end zone that nullified his interception was pure horseshit, but it would have been wiped out anyway by an offsides call on the same play. There were a lot of blatant holds by the Vikings that went completely uncalled.

-Our secondary was just not there. Everyone was getting beat, but to be fair, the best of the best pros at CB and S will break down in coverage with zero pass rush. And when I say zero, I mean zero. Favre was hit once by Kampman. That was it. Literally, that was the only knockdown. It’s not as if Favre was stepping out of the way of pressure either, it’s that the pressure simply was not there. How hard can it be to sack a department store mannequin in the pocket?

-Having said that, holding Adrian Peterson to something like 25 carries, 56 yards is a huge step for the run defense. For the most part, the Packers swarmed to the football, didn’t let Peterson run outside the tackles and stacked him up at the line of scrimmage. Clay Matthews made an amazing play to rob Peterson of the ball on his fumble return for a TD; that seemed to take the mojo right out of Peterson. I believe that was the last carry on which he just would not go down; after that, he went to the turf more quietly and didn’t finish his runs like he did in much of the first half. For a runner who had historically torn through the Packers’ various defenses like a human tornado-only being stopped in the second game of 2007 by a knee injury-this was a pleasure to watch.

-Where’s Nick Collins gone off to? His clavicle injury will surely benefit from the bye week, but the Packers haven’t called his name since the first game of the year. He doesn’t appear to be playing aggressively and isn’t around the ball as much (just one tackle tonight). Getting him back up to form will be a major plus for this defense.

-The 2009 Packers have to be the best fourth-quarter team I have ever seen. I’m sure the stats would bear me out, but the Internet is down as I write this so I’ll have to improvise: Against the Bears, they score a dramatic game-winning TD. Against the Bengals, they rediscover offensive life near the end and are poised to win the game but run out of time. Against the Rams, they shut them out and score two TDs in the fourth quarter. And tonight against the Vikings: The defense erases Adrian Peterson from the map, finds the testicles it had been missing all night and prevents Favre from doing anything whatsoever. The offense goes into superfuck mode, mounting two long scoring drives. If we could just channel that fourth quarter excellence and make it last entire games, we would be doing to teams what we did to the Arizona Cardinals in the first half this preseason. (Obviously the internet is back now but it's late and I'm lazy.)

-Speaking of which, it is officially time for us to start living in the now (as it were) and forget completely about the 2009 preseason. Those Packers were invincible along the O-line, completed whatever passes they chose to complete, stifled opposing quarterbacks and forced enough turnovers to open their own Applebees’. These Packers are and can do none of the above, with the exception of forcing turnovers. These Packers are on pace to allow 80 sacks this season, and I can say with certainty that if we continue like this, Aaron Rodgers will not make it all the way through the year. And then we will REALLY be fucked.

-That series on the goal line pretty much summed up the night on offense. The Packers were moving the ball with impunity until they got to the five yard line of the Vikings. On first down, Grant ran for 4. On second down, a handoff to John Kuhn went nowhere as Kuhn went flying through the air to land just shy of the goal line. On third down, Rodgers’ quick (forced) pass to Finley went nowhere as the LB covering him made an exquisite tackle. On fourth down, Donald Lee dropped the TD. I very much support McCarthy’s decision to go for it there, but goddamn, that TD could have helped us out immeasurably.

-Finally, while this sucks like hell, it is not the end of the world. The Packers have a bye week to get healthy (and pray that Colledge, Jenkins and Blackmon don’t have serious injuries) at the end of which they should get Chad Clifton and Atari Bigby back. After that, we can pick our asses up and maybe make some noise in the NFC.

WHAT WE HAVE, HAVE, HAVE TO DO OVER THE BYE WEEK:

-Settle Rodgers down. Make it clear beyond a doubt to him that in games like that, it’s OK-hell, it’s great-to throw to your first open man. You don’t have to make a huge play every time. There were far too many moments in tonight’s game where Rodgers looked, saw something and looked again for something bigger and wound up getting sacked. That can’t happen again like it did tonight.

-Dom Capers, reshuffle your blitzes. We didn’t blitz hardly at all tonight. The one time we did that was effective, I remember, Charles Woodson got in Favre’s face and deflected the pass (although Taylor still caught the thing). Otherwise there was no pressure. This defense has produced turnovers but not sacks; let’s get some sacks.

-Sign a left tackle. I don’t care how, I don’t care whom (I think the ex-Bengal Levi Jones is the best on the market right now) but sign a goddamn left tackle over the bye week and give him some time to get acclimated. Call it shutting the barn door after the horse has fucking flown away, call it whatever you like, but do it. If Clifton goes down again and all we have to throw out against the NFL’s elite right ends is Daryn Colledge and T.J. Lang, we’re going to see the same thing over and over again as we saw with Antuan Odom and Jared Allen. God, ESPN showed every one of his sack dances, and every single one made me physically sick.