Here's the one big difference between the NFL lockout and the onrushing U.S. default deadline:
The NFL owners and players are rational beings who stand to lose more by missing games than they would gain by stalling the talks. So I have every expectation that we will have a new collective bargaining agreement within the next week, 10 days at the outside.
Nobody knows what the fuck the politicians--Obama, Boehner, Cantor--are, but they certainly aren't behaving like rational beings. They stand to lose a whole lot more than the NFL, in terms of money, prestige and elections, but for whatever reason aren't reacting the same way...
Hey, the U.S. may default on its debt, sparking financial disaster, causing us to lose our credit rating and be utterly humiliated before the entire world, but at least we'll have football to watch!
Showing posts with label NFL lockout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL lockout. Show all posts
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Three Probable Impacts of the NFL Lockout
1. Rookies will not contribute worth a flying damn this year.
The Packers drafted Randall Cobb, their second-round wide receiver of the future, to use him in all sorts of crazy ways like Percy Harvin 2.0. The expectation among fans immediately after he was drafted was that he could line up in the backfield, in the slot, outside, run reverses, return kicks and generally make the Green Bay offense that much more awesome.
The problem is, wide receiver is one of the hardest positions to learn even in the best of times. Meaning, when you've had a full offseason to absorb the playbook. But in the lockout, teams can't get playbooks to their rookies, so the two months of study (or more) that rookies would have had up until now hasn't happened. When they get to training camp (assuming a deal happens before then), they're going to have to learn the entire offense in a month, which is akin to becoming fluent in a foreign language in six months. It just doesn't work unless you are heroically talented.
There's a school of thought that running backs will be a little less affected than other positions, running back being the position where rookie runners tend to have more success (Adrian Peterson or Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, anyone?) but don't hold out hope for Alex Green to contribute in his rookie year, either. The plan was for him to be the third-down back, but the intricacies of blitz pickups and screen passes are probably best left to Brandon Jackson for another year. You don't want Jared Allen to take Rodgers' head off because the rookie RB missed a chip.
2. Veteran free agents won't fix your team this year.
NFL.com keeps posting articles guaranteed to tantalize fans of struggling teams, hypothesizing where big-name free agents will land and what holes on which teams need to be filled by which player. That's fine, but I wouldn't expect Sidney Rice or Nnamdi Asomugha to come in and be a world-beater on the Bears or Texans. The lack of time to learn the playbook and practice with new teammates also hurts these players, and the longer the lockout lasts, the more pronounced this effect will be. Scheme is so important in the NFL that veteran free agents will likely have little impact, early in the season.
3. But on the whole, veteran players who stay with their teams will be better than usual.
Players in their early to mid-thirties who would normally be going through minicamps and "optional" team workouts all spring and early summer now will have missed all of that. They'll be working out on their own, of course, but one would expect that veterans' bodies will be less tired come the summer. I would expect older players to benefit from the time off, and have a better season in 2011 than they might otherwise have had.
The Packers drafted Randall Cobb, their second-round wide receiver of the future, to use him in all sorts of crazy ways like Percy Harvin 2.0. The expectation among fans immediately after he was drafted was that he could line up in the backfield, in the slot, outside, run reverses, return kicks and generally make the Green Bay offense that much more awesome.
There's a school of thought that running backs will be a little less affected than other positions, running back being the position where rookie runners tend to have more success (Adrian Peterson or Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, anyone?) but don't hold out hope for Alex Green to contribute in his rookie year, either. The plan was for him to be the third-down back, but the intricacies of blitz pickups and screen passes are probably best left to Brandon Jackson for another year. You don't want Jared Allen to take Rodgers' head off because the rookie RB missed a chip.
2. Veteran free agents won't fix your team this year.
NFL.com keeps posting articles guaranteed to tantalize fans of struggling teams, hypothesizing where big-name free agents will land and what holes on which teams need to be filled by which player. That's fine, but I wouldn't expect Sidney Rice or Nnamdi Asomugha to come in and be a world-beater on the Bears or Texans. The lack of time to learn the playbook and practice with new teammates also hurts these players, and the longer the lockout lasts, the more pronounced this effect will be. Scheme is so important in the NFL that veteran free agents will likely have little impact, early in the season.
3. But on the whole, veteran players who stay with their teams will be better than usual.
Players in their early to mid-thirties who would normally be going through minicamps and "optional" team workouts all spring and early summer now will have missed all of that. They'll be working out on their own, of course, but one would expect that veterans' bodies will be less tired come the summer. I would expect older players to benefit from the time off, and have a better season in 2011 than they might otherwise have had.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Lockout, Day CXI: Deal Close?
A few months ago, a decision like that of the Eighth Circuit upholding the legality of the NFL lockout would've produced acrimony and strife. The NFL would've scoffed at the NFLPA and the NFLPA would've railed at the NFL, each crying unfairness and each pandering to the media. But instead of that, we got an actual joint statement from both parties.
Regardless of what the text says, (we're committed to negotiating, etc.), can you imagine the parties making a joint statement like this in February? I view this as a sign that the two sides have really stopped trying to make themselves look good to the fans and gotten down to what's actually important, that is, working out a deal.
Stay tuned.
Regardless of what the text says, (we're committed to negotiating, etc.), can you imagine the parties making a joint statement like this in February? I view this as a sign that the two sides have really stopped trying to make themselves look good to the fans and gotten down to what's actually important, that is, working out a deal.
Stay tuned.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Shutdown: Don't Panic (YET) Week
Well, here we are, lads and lassies. This week will be nuts.
Collective Bargaining News
On Tuesday, our homegrown budget nuttiness could go into endgame, as what Gov. Scott Walker says is a crucial deadline in his budget repair bill will irrevocably pass, forcing him to lay off 1,500 state employees (although Sen. Mark Miller has challenged this).
At midnight on Thursday, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL and the NFL Players' Association will expire. What happens in the next four days will largely determine whether the NFL has a lockout for the 2011 season.
And in slightly more serious news, Friday, March 4th is the deadline for Congressional Republicans and Democrats to come to some agreement on a continuing resolution that will fund the federal government, or (heaven forbid) actually pass a budget. Failure to do so could result in a government shutdown.
Damn.
Also in the "nutty news" category, apparently Navy ships are required by federal law to sell tobacco on board, thanks to some hefty lobbying by the tobacco industry.
The military has denied Rolling Stone's allegations that a certain Lt. Colonel Holmes was asked to perform 'psychological warfare' techniques on visiting U.S. and Afghan dignitaries. The Washington Post goes into some much-needed investigative reporting detail about the subject. It's kind of funny, actually. Rolling Stone's overblown article played up the one-man-against-the-machine angle, detailing how Holmes was reprimanded and censured for refusing to follow orders he considered illegal. But the Post not only shows how Holmes' assignment resulted from a bureaucratic reorganization rather then a sinister order, it highlights all the efforts Holmes made to fight the policy, from fighting with his superiors to consulting a military lawyer, to-revealingly-emailing the press to get his story out. (His first choice, for some reason, was the St. Petersburg Times. They turned him down, so he went to Rolling Stone.)
The House of Representatives will vote today on H.R. 386, which would enact a federal law against aiming laser pointers at aircraft. I thought this was a joke bill, but apparently it's a big safety issue; lasers flashed in a pilot's eyes during takeoff or landing could temporarily blind the pilot and even cause a crash. The penalty would be a fine or up to five years in prison, or both.
And the New York Times has published a mammoth piece on the health hazards of fracking, or hydraulic fracturing of rocks underground to release natural gas. Gas looked so promising when I was writing my paper last fall; now, with the revelations that fracking creates so much wastewater and is bad for the environment, coupled with the news that it may not be as carbon-friendly as we thought, well... huh.
(Hilarious quote from a Texan gas-well neighbor: "“I’m not an activist, an alarmist, a Democrat, environmentalist or anything like that,” Ms. Gant said.")
Of course, nobody else is really clean, either. The Union of Concerned Scientists recently published their report on subsidies to nuclear power, "The Gift That Keeps On Taking". I have every intention of reading the full PDF, but it's a hundred and fifty-odd pages, so I might be a while.
So, uh... keep checking back throughout the week as my state, federal and entertainment governments attempt to avoid their various fiscal boondoggles.
Bonne chance.
Collective Bargaining News
On Tuesday, our homegrown budget nuttiness could go into endgame, as what Gov. Scott Walker says is a crucial deadline in his budget repair bill will irrevocably pass, forcing him to lay off 1,500 state employees (although Sen. Mark Miller has challenged this).
At midnight on Thursday, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL and the NFL Players' Association will expire. What happens in the next four days will largely determine whether the NFL has a lockout for the 2011 season.
And in slightly more serious news, Friday, March 4th is the deadline for Congressional Republicans and Democrats to come to some agreement on a continuing resolution that will fund the federal government, or (heaven forbid) actually pass a budget. Failure to do so could result in a government shutdown.
Damn.
Also in the "nutty news" category, apparently Navy ships are required by federal law to sell tobacco on board, thanks to some hefty lobbying by the tobacco industry.
The military has denied Rolling Stone's allegations that a certain Lt. Colonel Holmes was asked to perform 'psychological warfare' techniques on visiting U.S. and Afghan dignitaries. The Washington Post goes into some much-needed investigative reporting detail about the subject. It's kind of funny, actually. Rolling Stone's overblown article played up the one-man-against-the-machine angle, detailing how Holmes was reprimanded and censured for refusing to follow orders he considered illegal. But the Post not only shows how Holmes' assignment resulted from a bureaucratic reorganization rather then a sinister order, it highlights all the efforts Holmes made to fight the policy, from fighting with his superiors to consulting a military lawyer, to-revealingly-emailing the press to get his story out. (His first choice, for some reason, was the St. Petersburg Times. They turned him down, so he went to Rolling Stone.)
The House of Representatives will vote today on H.R. 386, which would enact a federal law against aiming laser pointers at aircraft. I thought this was a joke bill, but apparently it's a big safety issue; lasers flashed in a pilot's eyes during takeoff or landing could temporarily blind the pilot and even cause a crash. The penalty would be a fine or up to five years in prison, or both.
And the New York Times has published a mammoth piece on the health hazards of fracking, or hydraulic fracturing of rocks underground to release natural gas. Gas looked so promising when I was writing my paper last fall; now, with the revelations that fracking creates so much wastewater and is bad for the environment, coupled with the news that it may not be as carbon-friendly as we thought, well... huh.
(Hilarious quote from a Texan gas-well neighbor: "“I’m not an activist, an alarmist, a Democrat, environmentalist or anything like that,” Ms. Gant said.")
Of course, nobody else is really clean, either. The Union of Concerned Scientists recently published their report on subsidies to nuclear power, "The Gift That Keeps On Taking". I have every intention of reading the full PDF, but it's a hundred and fifty-odd pages, so I might be a while.
So, uh... keep checking back throughout the week as my state, federal and entertainment governments attempt to avoid their various fiscal boondoggles.
Bonne chance.
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