Good evening all, I won't keep you long. Just wanted to show off my new article! I'm working the Internet as a Green Bay Packers blogger on the Oak Creek Patch website. My first serious article just went up this morning! It's called "Aaron Rodgers Vs. Chicago", and it analyzes Rodgers' statistical record against the Bears (spoiler alert: he struggles against them, worse than he does most other places). If you're into that sort of thing, please have a look!
Best,
Andy
Showing posts with label packers 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label packers 2011. Show all posts
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
James Jones or Jordy Nelson: Who Should Get Paid?
The Packers have a decision to make in their wide receiver corps.
Ted Thompson loves his wideouts, and one of the Packers’ biggest strengths since he came on board has been an extraordinarily deep group of wide receivers. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver starting, and James Jones and Jordy Nelson backing them up, the wideouts helped take Green Bay all the way to the Super Bowl.
Now it’s contract time, and we have to look at the overall group. Driver will likely retire within the next year or two, and his production has fallen off to the point where he’s more of a No. 3 now than a No. 2. James Jones is a free agent, while Nelson’s rookie contract ends after this year. Whoever gets the contract will eventually replace Driver as the No. 2. So assuming they can’t pay both*, whom should the Packers sign to a long-term deal?
To answer that question, let’s take an in-depth look at both receivers.
Over four years (one mostly curtailed by a knee injury), Jones has caught 149 passes for 2,069 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 13.9 yards par catch. He has worked primarily from the No. 3 slot on the depth chart, and has fumbled six times. He led the team this year in average yards after the catch, at 5.16 per, and had two 100-yard games (Minnesota, Dallas). He had one 100-yard game in 2009 (Tampa Bay), one in ’08 (Jacksonville) and one in ’07 (Denver).
Jones definitely possesses more natural talent and speed than Nelson. He’s extremely good at catching low-thrown balls and bailing his QB out on the scramble drill (40 first downs in ’10 to Nelson’s 18). According to the Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn, he’s “built like a brick outhouse” and “able to snatch the ball as well as anyone on the roster”; witness his the one-handed touchdown against Minnesota or the fade route over Atlanta’s Brent Grimes for examples.
He’s also prone to drops at the worst possible times. Jones dropped a slant route against Dallas and go routes against Miami, the Jets, the Giants, the Eagles and the Steelers that likely would’ve all gone for touchdowns. In addition, a Rodgers interception against the Dolphins and a Flynn pick vs. the Patriots happened when Jones appeared to quit on the routes. Jones has the speed to outrun the defense on go routes, but he drops too many passes overall (17 in the last two years).
Nelson’s biggest strength is knowing when to step it up. Played extremely well against the Giants and in the four-game postseason, Super Bowl included. Also made the clutch touchdown catch on fourth down at Atlanta (regular season). His breaks aren’t particularly crisp, but he’s big enough (6’3”. 217 lbs) to effectively box defenders out with his body and keep them away from the football. Definitely the best run blocker among the WRs. Does a good job evading contact at the line of scrimmage. His route-running, hands and agility are all pretty average.
*Ted Thompson will need cap space to sign players like Clay Matthews, Josh Sitton and Jermichael Finley to long-term deals in the next year or two. Also, Greg Jennings’ contract expires after 2012, so assuming that the Packers can pick only one receiver is a reasonable assessment.
Ted Thompson loves his wideouts, and one of the Packers’ biggest strengths since he came on board has been an extraordinarily deep group of wide receivers. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver starting, and James Jones and Jordy Nelson backing them up, the wideouts helped take Green Bay all the way to the Super Bowl.
Now it’s contract time, and we have to look at the overall group. Driver will likely retire within the next year or two, and his production has fallen off to the point where he’s more of a No. 3 now than a No. 2. James Jones is a free agent, while Nelson’s rookie contract ends after this year. Whoever gets the contract will eventually replace Driver as the No. 2. So assuming they can’t pay both*, whom should the Packers sign to a long-term deal?
James Jones #89
Over four years (one mostly curtailed by a knee injury), Jones has caught 149 passes for 2,069 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 13.9 yards par catch. He has worked primarily from the No. 3 slot on the depth chart, and has fumbled six times. He led the team this year in average yards after the catch, at 5.16 per, and had two 100-yard games (Minnesota, Dallas). He had one 100-yard game in 2009 (Tampa Bay), one in ’08 (Jacksonville) and one in ’07 (Denver).
Jones definitely possesses more natural talent and speed than Nelson. He’s extremely good at catching low-thrown balls and bailing his QB out on the scramble drill (40 first downs in ’10 to Nelson’s 18). According to the Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn, he’s “built like a brick outhouse” and “able to snatch the ball as well as anyone on the roster”; witness his the one-handed touchdown against Minnesota or the fade route over Atlanta’s Brent Grimes for examples.
He’s also prone to drops at the worst possible times. Jones dropped a slant route against Dallas and go routes against Miami, the Jets, the Giants, the Eagles and the Steelers that likely would’ve all gone for touchdowns. In addition, a Rodgers interception against the Dolphins and a Flynn pick vs. the Patriots happened when Jones appeared to quit on the routes. Jones has the speed to outrun the defense on go routes, but he drops too many passes overall (17 in the last two years).
Jordy Nelson #87
Nelson has mostly worked out of the No. 4 slot for the past three years, catching 100 balls for 1,268 yards, six touchdowns and a 12.7 ypc average. He dropped four of 83 targeted passes in his first two years before dropping 10 of 92 this year (inc. playoffs). His résumé includes four drops in the Super Bowl, but more importantly, nine catches for 140 yards and one TD. Also has six fumbles in four seasons, including four lost. Has just one 100-yard game besides the Super Bowl, catching four for 124 against the Giants in ’10. Nelson’s biggest strength is knowing when to step it up. Played extremely well against the Giants and in the four-game postseason, Super Bowl included. Also made the clutch touchdown catch on fourth down at Atlanta (regular season). His breaks aren’t particularly crisp, but he’s big enough (6’3”. 217 lbs) to effectively box defenders out with his body and keep them away from the football. Definitely the best run blocker among the WRs. Does a good job evading contact at the line of scrimmage. His route-running, hands and agility are all pretty average.
The Verdict?
I honestly don’t have a definitive answer. When I started this, I kept thinking about Jones’ copious drops, and thought that Nelson would be a better, more consistent option. But Jones is more talented and a better possession-type receiver than Nelson is at this stage, and also runs crisper routes.
Both players have benefited from their matchups against No. 3 and 4 corners, and of coverage slanted towards Jennings and Jermichael Finley. I think, however, that Nelson is a bit more suited to deal with defenses paying more attention to him. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of a contract offer they make to Jones, and whether they value Nelson’s big-game production more than they do Jones’ superior potential.
Both players have benefited from their matchups against No. 3 and 4 corners, and of coverage slanted towards Jennings and Jermichael Finley. I think, however, that Nelson is a bit more suited to deal with defenses paying more attention to him. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of a contract offer they make to Jones, and whether they value Nelson’s big-game production more than they do Jones’ superior potential.
Best guess: Nelson.
*Ted Thompson will need cap space to sign players like Clay Matthews, Josh Sitton and Jermichael Finley to long-term deals in the next year or two. Also, Greg Jennings’ contract expires after 2012, so assuming that the Packers can pick only one receiver is a reasonable assessment.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Andy's Symbol Association 2011 Mock Draft: Guaranteed to coax a "WTF" out of you!
Well, this is refreshing. After a week or so of feeling like I had nothing to say, now it feels like I can't for the life of me shut up. Continuing to prove that point, I have for you the most eclectic mock draft on the Internet to date. Here's the names of the prospects and what their names remind me of.
1. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina. Like an oak tree. Big, spreading arms and lots of leaves hanging down.
2. Marcel Dareus, DT, Broncos. Squatty. Compact. Iron. Like a crumpled bowling ball made of cast iron.
3. Von Miller, OLB, Bills. Fighter jet. New metals, light but strong, like they're using in the next generation of warplanes.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, QB. Like the guy at the end of Akira when he's become gigantic and his flesh is all gloopy and melting off in chunks.
5. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals. Tall and branchy, like a giant letter K.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR. Long and smooth and fluid, like Silly Putty if it was made of stainless steel.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukarama, CB. Joseph and his coat of many colors.
8. Nick Fairley, DT, Tennessee Titans: Big, fat and creaky. Lots of dust falling out of the creases on his uniform shirt when he stands up. The drone of buzzing flies follows him everywhere.
9. Dallas: Tyron Smith, OT. A big chunk of raw gold, like they just took him out of a mineshaft.
10. Julio Jones, WR, Washington Redskins: A man made of bowling balls and pipe cleaners, like that fighting game Sid plays.
11. Houston Texans, Aldon Smith, DE-OLB. A packing frame, like the kind you use to move tables, on caster wheels and made of dense metal.
12. Minnesota Vikings, Jake Locker, QB: A wet cardboard box that falls apart outwards, in all directions.
13. Detroit Lions, Anthony Costanzo, OT: A red-and-gold monster behemoth with long arms and a slight hunch.
14. St. Louis Rams: Da'Quan Bowers, DE. Like half a gear, but all the little stubs are spikes, and it swings on a hinge and bar system that's rooted next to the defensive tackle.
15. Mike Pouncey, G-C, Miami Dolphins: An amorphous black-and-gold mass, like a color-shifting rock, that just sits there and glares at people.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Robert Quinn, DE. A shoulder-launched missile, or SAM, that is hoisted onto the shoulder and fired but that's made of pure talent, which is like an unbearable white light.
17. New England: Mark Ingram, RB. A sword, except not a sword. The hilt is somewhere buried in the earth, and the blade sticks out and moves like a shark's fin over the surface of the ocean.
18. San Diego: Cameron Jordan, DE. Black and gold in front, red behind.
19. New York Giants: Derek Sherrod, OT. A massive, crumbling old-man-of-the-mountain type of guy, with a little bit of Ent thrown in. Like a big, grey, rocky Ent with dirt falling off him.
20. Tampa Bay Bucs: J.J. Watt, DE. A pair of giant hooks attached to a bear.
21. Nate Solder, OT, Kansas City Chiefs. Like the other tackles, but this one's a big, burnished mass of metal. Won't fall apart easily.
22. Corey Liuget, DT, Indianapolis Colts. The Blob, but congealed.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB. A football player who jabbers a lot.
24. New Orleans Saints: Ryan Kerrigan, DE. Green and purple and really knobby. Lots of knobs, like reptile skin, but on a bigger scale.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Adrian Clayborn, DE. Man made of pottery... this one's obvious.
26. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Baltimore Ravens: Extremely large, wrinkly, dark black mass that has a cross around what might be construed as its neck.
27. Atlanta: Gabe Carimi, OT. A bear on its hind legs, except the bear is constructed out of limestone. And it doesn't really look like a bear; like, it isn't a bear-shaped statue or anything, but if you saw this thing your mind would fill in "bear" as a shape.
28. Trade: Tennessee Titans, Andy Dalton, QB. Clean-cut evil statue.
29. Chicago Bears: Phil Taylor, DT. Mean.
30. New York Jets, Akeem Ayers, OLB. Like a tree, but hasn't filled in yet. All the branches are there, but they're kind of droopy and unformed.
31. Aaron Williams, CB: A small rocket.
32. Green Bay Packers: Danny Watkins, G. A giant pink ball that's squeezed itself into a leather coat. Steely.
1. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina. Like an oak tree. Big, spreading arms and lots of leaves hanging down.
2. Marcel Dareus, DT, Broncos. Squatty. Compact. Iron. Like a crumpled bowling ball made of cast iron.
3. Von Miller, OLB, Bills. Fighter jet. New metals, light but strong, like they're using in the next generation of warplanes.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, QB. Like the guy at the end of Akira when he's become gigantic and his flesh is all gloopy and melting off in chunks.
5. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals. Tall and branchy, like a giant letter K.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR. Long and smooth and fluid, like Silly Putty if it was made of stainless steel.
 |
| ... |
8. Nick Fairley, DT, Tennessee Titans: Big, fat and creaky. Lots of dust falling out of the creases on his uniform shirt when he stands up. The drone of buzzing flies follows him everywhere.
9. Dallas: Tyron Smith, OT. A big chunk of raw gold, like they just took him out of a mineshaft.
10. Julio Jones, WR, Washington Redskins: A man made of bowling balls and pipe cleaners, like that fighting game Sid plays.
11. Houston Texans, Aldon Smith, DE-OLB. A packing frame, like the kind you use to move tables, on caster wheels and made of dense metal.
12. Minnesota Vikings, Jake Locker, QB: A wet cardboard box that falls apart outwards, in all directions.
13. Detroit Lions, Anthony Costanzo, OT: A red-and-gold monster behemoth with long arms and a slight hunch.
14. St. Louis Rams: Da'Quan Bowers, DE. Like half a gear, but all the little stubs are spikes, and it swings on a hinge and bar system that's rooted next to the defensive tackle.
15. Mike Pouncey, G-C, Miami Dolphins: An amorphous black-and-gold mass, like a color-shifting rock, that just sits there and glares at people.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Robert Quinn, DE. A shoulder-launched missile, or SAM, that is hoisted onto the shoulder and fired but that's made of pure talent, which is like an unbearable white light.
17. New England: Mark Ingram, RB. A sword, except not a sword. The hilt is somewhere buried in the earth, and the blade sticks out and moves like a shark's fin over the surface of the ocean.
18. San Diego: Cameron Jordan, DE. Black and gold in front, red behind.
19. New York Giants: Derek Sherrod, OT. A massive, crumbling old-man-of-the-mountain type of guy, with a little bit of Ent thrown in. Like a big, grey, rocky Ent with dirt falling off him.
20. Tampa Bay Bucs: J.J. Watt, DE. A pair of giant hooks attached to a bear.
21. Nate Solder, OT, Kansas City Chiefs. Like the other tackles, but this one's a big, burnished mass of metal. Won't fall apart easily.
22. Corey Liuget, DT, Indianapolis Colts. The Blob, but congealed.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB. A football player who jabbers a lot.
24. New Orleans Saints: Ryan Kerrigan, DE. Green and purple and really knobby. Lots of knobs, like reptile skin, but on a bigger scale.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Adrian Clayborn, DE. Man made of pottery... this one's obvious.
26. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Baltimore Ravens: Extremely large, wrinkly, dark black mass that has a cross around what might be construed as its neck.
27. Atlanta: Gabe Carimi, OT. A bear on its hind legs, except the bear is constructed out of limestone. And it doesn't really look like a bear; like, it isn't a bear-shaped statue or anything, but if you saw this thing your mind would fill in "bear" as a shape.
28. Trade: Tennessee Titans, Andy Dalton, QB. Clean-cut evil statue.
29. Chicago Bears: Phil Taylor, DT. Mean.
30. New York Jets, Akeem Ayers, OLB. Like a tree, but hasn't filled in yet. All the branches are there, but they're kind of droopy and unformed.
31. Aaron Williams, CB: A small rocket.
32. Green Bay Packers: Danny Watkins, G. A giant pink ball that's squeezed itself into a leather coat. Steely.
Friday, April 1, 2011
Packers Draft Trends
After six drafts and one Super Bowl championship, I think that Packers general manager Ted Thompson has amassed a fair enough body of work that we can try and draw some conclusions. I'm going to present the draftees, point out some trends and see if I can make some tentative predictions about his 2011 draft from a positional standpoint. (All hail Wikipedia!) If you're a Packers fan and/or already know this stuff, feel free to skip the following lists.
2005
1. Aaron Rodgers, QB (Pro Bowl)
2. Nick Collins, FS (Pro Bowl)
2. Terrence Murphy, WR (retired; spinal stenosis)
4. Marviel Underwood, CB (out of NFL, defined here as 1+ years without being on a NFL team)
4. Brady Poppinga, OLB
5. Junius Coston, C (out of NFL)
5. Mike Hawkins, CB (out of NFL)
6. Mike Montgomery, DE (free agent)
6. Craig Bragg, WR (out of NFL)
7. Kurt Campbell, CB (out of NFL)
7. Will Whitticker, G (out of NFL)
2006
1. A.J. Hawk, LB
2. Daryn Colledge, G
2. Greg Jennings, WR (Pro Bowl)
3. Abdul Hodge, LB (Carolina)
3. Jason Spitz, G-C
4. Cory Rodgers, WR (out of NFL)
4. Will Blackmon, CB (free agent)
5. Ingle Martin, QB (out of NFL)
5. Tony Moll, T (Baltimore)
6. Johnny Jolly, DT (suspended)
6. Tyrone Culver, S (Miami)
7. Dave Tollefson, DE (NY Giants)
(Signed Tramon Williams, UFA)
2007
1. Justin Harrell, DT
2. Brandon Jackson, RB
3. James Jones, WR
3. Aaron Rouse, S (Omaha Nighthawks; played for Cardinals in 2010)
4. Allen Barbre, G (Miami)
5. David Clowney, WR (Carolina)
6. Korey Hall, LB/FB
6. Desmond Bishop, LB
6. Mason Crosby, K
7. DeShawn Wynn, RB (New Orleans)
7. Clark Harris, TE (Cincinnati)
2008
2. Jordy Nelson, WR
2. Brian Brohm, QB (Buffalo)
2. Patrick Lee, CB
3. Jermichael Finley, TE
4. Jeremy Thompson, DE (retired, spinal stenosis)
4. Josh Sitton, G
5. Breno Giacomini, T (Seattle)
7. Matt Flynn, QB
7. Brett Swain, WR
2009
1. B.J. Raji, DT/NT
1. Clay Matthews, OLB (Pro Bowl)
4. T. J. Lang, G/T
5. Quinn Johnson, FB
5. Jamon Meredith, OT (Buffalo)
6. Jarius Wynn, DE
6. Brandon Underwood, CB
7. Brad Jones, LB
2010
1. Bryan Bulaga, T
2. Mike Neal, DE
3. Morgan Burnett, S
5. Andrew Quarless, TE
5. Marshall Newhouse, C/G
6. James Starks, RB
7. C.J. Wilson, DE
33 of Thompson's 58 drafted players remain on the Packers' roster or IR list. Two were forced to retire due to medical conditions, eight are out of the NFL, eleven are on the rosters of other NFL teams (Aaron Rouse is on a UFL team), two are free agents and one has been suspended from the league. Just two players (Johnny Jolly, Brandon Underwood) have had legal trouble in the past six years, a testament to the character of the players Thompson has drafted. Four of his draftees (Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Nick Collins, Clay Matthews) have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, along with two free agents (Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams).
Players Selected by Position
Players are arranged in descending order of their contributions to the team.
QBs: 4 (Rodgers, Flynn, Martin/Brohm)
WRs: 8 (Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Clowney, Swain, Bragg/Rodgers/Murphy)
RBs: 3 (Jackson, Starks, Wynn)
TEs: 3 (Finley, Quarless, Harris)
FBs: 2 (Hall, Johnson)
OL*: 12 (Sitton, Colledge, Spitz, Bulaga, Lang, Moll, Newhouse/Coston/Whitticker/Barbre/Giacomini/Meredith)
CB: 6 (Lee, Blackmon, B. Underwood, M. Underwood/Hawkins/Campbell)
S: 4 (Collins, Rouse, Burnett, Culver)
ILB: 2 (Bishop, Hodge)
OLB: 4 (Matthews, Hawk, Poppinga, Jones)
DL: 9 (Raji, Jolly, Neal, Wilson, Wynn, Montgomery, Tollefson, Harrell, Thompson)
K: 1 (Crosby)
*(Since many of Thompson's O-line and D-line draftees have played several positions, this seems like the most hassle-free way to do the list.)
Thompson has selected just three running backs (Jackson 2nd, Wynn 7th, Starks 6th). He likes to aim high for WRs, having spent second-round picks on Murphy, Jennings and Nelson and a third on Jones. Craig Bragg (6th), Cory Rodgers (4th), David Clowney (5th) and Brett Swain (7th) round out the crew at WR, the most players Thompson has selected at any single position.
Thompson selected three cornerbacks in his first-ever draft, all of whom failed. Perhaps discouraged, he took a total of three in the next five drafts, preferring instead to find CBs on the street (Williams, Shields) or through free agency (Woodson).
Until 2008, Thompson had a reputation for only trading down in the draft. That year he traded up to get Jeremy Thompson in the fourth round, and has done it each year since, nabbing Clay Matthews in 2009 and Morgan Burnett in '10. Thompson has made only two player-for-player trades that I can recall, shipping Tony Moll to Baltimore in 2009 for Derrick Martin and swapping Samkon Gado for Vernand Morency. He also famously acquired Ryan Grant from the Giants for a sixth-round pick.
Thompson likes to go after offensive linemen in the middle rounds of the draft, spending picks on Sitton, Lang, Moll, Giacomini, Coston, Barbre and Meredith in rounds 4-6. Of these, only Sitton and Lang appear to have stuck.
Thompson has piled up a lot of late-round picks over the years, by way of compensatory picks or trades, which is one reason why the Packers average 9.6 selections per year. The Packers have had 28 picks in the last six years in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. From these rounds have come five starters (Bishop, Crosby, Hall, Jones, Jolly) and three talented backups (Flynn, Wilson, Starks) who are likely to start at some point. Bishop is probably the single best player from these rounds, closely followed by Flynn.
While Thompson hasn't regularly found talent at the bottom of the draft, at the top he's been outstanding. Only one of his first-round picks has been a bust (Harrell), with every other one starting and two making trips to the Pro Bowl. Rodgers, Jennings, Collins, Matthews, Raji and Finley are top-five players in the entire league at their respective positions, and Neal, Burnett, Colledge, Jackson, Jones, Nelson and Spitz have either been decent starters or excelled as backups. Tally them up and you can say that Thompson has had success with 13 of his top 21 picks, which is a figure most GMs would kill to have.
Players Selected by Round
(Chronological order)
1. Rodgers, Hawk, Harrell, Raji, Matthews, Bulaga
2. Collins, Murphy, Colledge, Jennings, Jackson, Nelson, Brohm, Lee, Neal
3. Hodge, Spitz, Jones, Rouse, Finley, Burnett
4. Underwood, Poppinga, Rodgers, Blackmon, Barbre, Sitton, Lang
5. Coston, Hawkins, Martin, Moll, Clowney, Giacomini, Johnson, Meredith, Quarless, Newhouse
6. Montgomery, Bragg, Jolly, Culver, Hall, Bishop, Crosby, Wynn, Underwood, Starks
7. Campbell, Whitticker, Tollefson, Wynn, Harris, Flynn, Swain, Jones, Wilson
Finally, Thompson has shown a tendency to defy the draftniks who label teams' biggest needs and how they should be addressed. He passed on selecting a cornerback or an outside linebacker in the 2010 draft, ignoring pundits' judgment that that was the team's biggest need. What happened? Super Bowl.
With that said, I offer my tentative conclusion that Thompson will go wide receiver, offensive tackle or defensive end in the first round. He will likely address at least two of these positions during the first three rounds of the draft. With an incredibly deep roster already in place, don't be surprised to see Thompson make a trade to get into the second round again to snag a favored player.
With the Packers' first-round pick I'd like to see him take any of these players, all of whom have been available at #32 in some of the mock drafts I've seen: RB Mark Ingram, WR Jonathan Baldwin, OT Benjamin Ijalena, DE J.J. Watt, OLB Akeem Ayers, DE Jabaal Sheard, G Danny Watkins, G-C Mike Pouncey or DE Cameron Heyward.
2005
1. Aaron Rodgers, QB (Pro Bowl)
2. Nick Collins, FS (Pro Bowl)
2. Terrence Murphy, WR (retired; spinal stenosis)
4. Marviel Underwood, CB (out of NFL, defined here as 1+ years without being on a NFL team)
4. Brady Poppinga, OLB
5. Junius Coston, C (out of NFL)
5. Mike Hawkins, CB (out of NFL)
6. Mike Montgomery, DE (free agent)
6. Craig Bragg, WR (out of NFL)
7. Kurt Campbell, CB (out of NFL)
7. Will Whitticker, G (out of NFL)
2006
1. A.J. Hawk, LB
2. Daryn Colledge, G
2. Greg Jennings, WR (Pro Bowl)
3. Abdul Hodge, LB (Carolina)
3. Jason Spitz, G-C
4. Cory Rodgers, WR (out of NFL)
4. Will Blackmon, CB (free agent)
5. Ingle Martin, QB (out of NFL)
5. Tony Moll, T (Baltimore)
6. Johnny Jolly, DT (suspended)
6. Tyrone Culver, S (Miami)
7. Dave Tollefson, DE (NY Giants)
(Signed Tramon Williams, UFA)
2007
1. Justin Harrell, DT
2. Brandon Jackson, RB
3. James Jones, WR
3. Aaron Rouse, S (Omaha Nighthawks; played for Cardinals in 2010)
4. Allen Barbre, G (Miami)
5. David Clowney, WR (Carolina)
6. Korey Hall, LB/FB
6. Desmond Bishop, LB
6. Mason Crosby, K
7. DeShawn Wynn, RB (New Orleans)
7. Clark Harris, TE (Cincinnati)
2008
2. Jordy Nelson, WR
2. Brian Brohm, QB (Buffalo)
2. Patrick Lee, CB
3. Jermichael Finley, TE
4. Jeremy Thompson, DE (retired, spinal stenosis)
4. Josh Sitton, G
5. Breno Giacomini, T (Seattle)
7. Matt Flynn, QB
7. Brett Swain, WR
2009
1. B.J. Raji, DT/NT
1. Clay Matthews, OLB (Pro Bowl)
4. T. J. Lang, G/T
5. Quinn Johnson, FB
5. Jamon Meredith, OT (Buffalo)
6. Jarius Wynn, DE
6. Brandon Underwood, CB
7. Brad Jones, LB
2010
1. Bryan Bulaga, T
2. Mike Neal, DE
3. Morgan Burnett, S
5. Andrew Quarless, TE
5. Marshall Newhouse, C/G
6. James Starks, RB
7. C.J. Wilson, DE
33 of Thompson's 58 drafted players remain on the Packers' roster or IR list. Two were forced to retire due to medical conditions, eight are out of the NFL, eleven are on the rosters of other NFL teams (Aaron Rouse is on a UFL team), two are free agents and one has been suspended from the league. Just two players (Johnny Jolly, Brandon Underwood) have had legal trouble in the past six years, a testament to the character of the players Thompson has drafted. Four of his draftees (Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Nick Collins, Clay Matthews) have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, along with two free agents (Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams).
Players Selected by Position
Players are arranged in descending order of their contributions to the team.
QBs: 4 (Rodgers, Flynn, Martin/Brohm)
WRs: 8 (Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Clowney, Swain, Bragg/Rodgers/Murphy)
RBs: 3 (Jackson, Starks, Wynn)
TEs: 3 (Finley, Quarless, Harris)
FBs: 2 (Hall, Johnson)
OL*: 12 (Sitton, Colledge, Spitz, Bulaga, Lang, Moll, Newhouse/Coston/Whitticker/Barbre/Giacomini/Meredith)
CB: 6 (Lee, Blackmon, B. Underwood, M. Underwood/Hawkins/Campbell)
S: 4 (Collins, Rouse, Burnett, Culver)
ILB: 2 (Bishop, Hodge)
OLB: 4 (Matthews, Hawk, Poppinga, Jones)
DL: 9 (Raji, Jolly, Neal, Wilson, Wynn, Montgomery, Tollefson, Harrell, Thompson)
K: 1 (Crosby)
*(Since many of Thompson's O-line and D-line draftees have played several positions, this seems like the most hassle-free way to do the list.)
Thompson has selected just three running backs (Jackson 2nd, Wynn 7th, Starks 6th). He likes to aim high for WRs, having spent second-round picks on Murphy, Jennings and Nelson and a third on Jones. Craig Bragg (6th), Cory Rodgers (4th), David Clowney (5th) and Brett Swain (7th) round out the crew at WR, the most players Thompson has selected at any single position.
Thompson selected three cornerbacks in his first-ever draft, all of whom failed. Perhaps discouraged, he took a total of three in the next five drafts, preferring instead to find CBs on the street (Williams, Shields) or through free agency (Woodson).
Until 2008, Thompson had a reputation for only trading down in the draft. That year he traded up to get Jeremy Thompson in the fourth round, and has done it each year since, nabbing Clay Matthews in 2009 and Morgan Burnett in '10. Thompson has made only two player-for-player trades that I can recall, shipping Tony Moll to Baltimore in 2009 for Derrick Martin and swapping Samkon Gado for Vernand Morency. He also famously acquired Ryan Grant from the Giants for a sixth-round pick.
Thompson likes to go after offensive linemen in the middle rounds of the draft, spending picks on Sitton, Lang, Moll, Giacomini, Coston, Barbre and Meredith in rounds 4-6. Of these, only Sitton and Lang appear to have stuck.
Thompson has piled up a lot of late-round picks over the years, by way of compensatory picks or trades, which is one reason why the Packers average 9.6 selections per year. The Packers have had 28 picks in the last six years in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. From these rounds have come five starters (Bishop, Crosby, Hall, Jones, Jolly) and three talented backups (Flynn, Wilson, Starks) who are likely to start at some point. Bishop is probably the single best player from these rounds, closely followed by Flynn.
While Thompson hasn't regularly found talent at the bottom of the draft, at the top he's been outstanding. Only one of his first-round picks has been a bust (Harrell), with every other one starting and two making trips to the Pro Bowl. Rodgers, Jennings, Collins, Matthews, Raji and Finley are top-five players in the entire league at their respective positions, and Neal, Burnett, Colledge, Jackson, Jones, Nelson and Spitz have either been decent starters or excelled as backups. Tally them up and you can say that Thompson has had success with 13 of his top 21 picks, which is a figure most GMs would kill to have.
Players Selected by Round
(Chronological order)
1. Rodgers, Hawk, Harrell, Raji, Matthews, Bulaga
2. Collins, Murphy, Colledge, Jennings, Jackson, Nelson, Brohm, Lee, Neal
3. Hodge, Spitz, Jones, Rouse, Finley, Burnett
4. Underwood, Poppinga, Rodgers, Blackmon, Barbre, Sitton, Lang
5. Coston, Hawkins, Martin, Moll, Clowney, Giacomini, Johnson, Meredith, Quarless, Newhouse
6. Montgomery, Bragg, Jolly, Culver, Hall, Bishop, Crosby, Wynn, Underwood, Starks
7. Campbell, Whitticker, Tollefson, Wynn, Harris, Flynn, Swain, Jones, Wilson
Finally, Thompson has shown a tendency to defy the draftniks who label teams' biggest needs and how they should be addressed. He passed on selecting a cornerback or an outside linebacker in the 2010 draft, ignoring pundits' judgment that that was the team's biggest need. What happened? Super Bowl.
With that said, I offer my tentative conclusion that Thompson will go wide receiver, offensive tackle or defensive end in the first round. He will likely address at least two of these positions during the first three rounds of the draft. With an incredibly deep roster already in place, don't be surprised to see Thompson make a trade to get into the second round again to snag a favored player.
With the Packers' first-round pick I'd like to see him take any of these players, all of whom have been available at #32 in some of the mock drafts I've seen: RB Mark Ingram, WR Jonathan Baldwin, OT Benjamin Ijalena, DE J.J. Watt, OLB Akeem Ayers, DE Jabaal Sheard, G Danny Watkins, G-C Mike Pouncey or DE Cameron Heyward.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
What Will the Packers' Defensive Line Look Like in 2011?
Johnny Jolly's latest boneheaded decision to use and possibly sell codeine has unequivocally ended his playing career with Green Bay. A second suspension from the NFL wouldn't be out of the question, but the greater question is whether he'll be able to avoid jail time after his second offense... and there's absolutely no reason to keep him on the roster now.
So, what now for the Packers? Fans had speculated that Jolly could provide a boost to the Packers' defensive line corps, which isn't the surest thing going into the season. Let's take a look at our players and their prospects for 2011.
First, The Goners:
Cullen Jenkins, #77, DE: 6'2", 302 lbs. Age: 30.
Jenkins, one of the team's few remaining players from the Mike Sherman era, will almost certainly leave the Packers in free agency. He's played out the four-year contract he signed in 2006, and while he nearly always had some sort of nagging injury, Jenkins registered a career-high seven sacks this year while starting just eight games. In addition, profootballfocus.com judges that he had the second-highest percentage of pressures per rush of any interior lineman. The Packers have shown little interest in re-signing him, and he can play virtually any position except nose tackle (since 2006, Jenkins has played as a 4-3 DE, 4-3 DT, 3-4 DE and 3-4 nickel rusher). Jenkins will get a huge payday someplace, and the Packers seem content to move on with whom they have.
Justin Harrell, #91, DE: 6'4", 315 lbs. Age: 27.
Oooh, boy. Well, unless the Packers are completely insane, Harrell will get no more than a look in training camp and will not make the opening day roster. Despite having every physical tool you could want from a DE, Harrell has not recorded a sack in four years of play and has started only two games (2007). In addition, he's been active for just seven games in the past three years due to various injuries. No, he'll be released, and good riddance to him.
The Big Names
B.J. Raji, #90, NT/Nickel Rusher: 6'2", 337 lbs. Age: 24
After a nondescript rookie season in which he was hindered by a high ankle sprain, "The Freezer" moved from DE to NT, recorded 6.5 sacks and had an unforgettable pick-six against Chicago in the NFC Championship game. Because the Packers played in their nickel defense about 75% of the time last year, Raji lined up more often as a nickel rusher and not at his usual nose tackle spot. He was a rock at any position, however, and often played more than 60 snaps a game. In the first game against the Vikings this year, he played the entire game as one of only three healthy linemen (Cullen Jenkins was a game-time scratch) and performed well. He's the surest thing on the Packers' line right now.
Ryan Pickett, #79, DE: 6'2", 340 lbs. Age: 31
"Big Grease", a ten-year veteran originally drafted by St. Louis, isn't used as much under Dom Capers as he was in the days of the 4-3 defense. More run-stuffer than pass-rusher, Pickett recorded just one sack last year in limited playing time, as Capers tended to send Jenkins and Raji onto the field in nickel packages. Pickett signed a four-year contract last year and will make a modest $2.7 million in 2011, but he isn't really needed at DE except for depth purposes. His base salary will be $4.5 million in 2012 and $5.4 million in 2013, and it'll be interesting to see if he's still in the Packers' plans at that time. It's important to note that Pickett is looked up to as a leader in the Packers' locker room, particularly on the defensive line.
Howard Green, #95, DE: 6'2", 340. Age: 32
Identical to Pickett in height and weight, Green was signed just before the Packers' victory over New York and provided depth throughout the season. He's kind of just a big guy without much short-area quickness, but he proved difficult to move against the run and made the biggest play of his career in Super Bowl XLV, bulling through Steelers guard Chris Kemonatu to knock down Ben Roethlisberger and cause an interception. Green was picked up for a song as a "street" free agent, and there's no reason the Packers wouldn't bring him back in camp. With a summer of conditioning and game-planning, he's worth at least an extended look as a reserve.
Mike Neal, #96, DE: 6'3", 294 lbs. Age: 23
There's a lot to like about Mike Neal. He's phenomenally strong, and although he was pretty raw in his rookie training camp, he appeared to be developing a good arsenal of pass-rush moves. I remember watching the Green Bay-Washington game in person and just being awed at how he, Jenkins and Raji were dominating the Redskins' offensive line. After the game, Mike Shanahan said that that Packers' defensive line corps was the best one in the league.
The problem is that Neal couldn't stay healthy. After a solid training camp, Neal suffered a rare abdominal injury and was out for the first three games of the season. He forced a fumble in the fourth game (Detroit) and recorded a sack in the fifth (Washington), but injured his shoulder and went on injured reserve. It's a bit early to call him injury-prone, but, well... The Packers appear to be counting on him to replace Jenkins, which he is completely able to do, in my opinion. But if he never gets on the field, the Packers better have a backup plan before the season starts.
C.J. Wilson, #98, DE: 6'3", 290 lbs. Age: 23
A promising rookie, Wilson was fairly stout against the run in training camp and then bulked up as the year went on. He appeared in garbage time against the Falcons in the divisional playoff round and recorded a sack of Matt Ryan, the Packers' fifth of the game. He was active in 15 regular-season games and actually started in the Super Bowl. Wilson was used a lot during a four-game stretch when Jenkins was injured and showed some potential as a hard-nosed run defender. We'll see what he can do in this training camp, but he has every chance to earn a starting spot.
Jarius Wynn, #94, DE: 6'3", 285 lbs. Age: 24
Beaten out by Wilson for the last spot on the line in 2010, Wynn was resigned almost immediately after Harrell tore his ACL in the first game. He's hung around the Packers for two seasons now but hasn't shown all that much; he's not stout against the run, and while he does have some pass-rush capability (he recorded the only sack of Brett Favre in the first Vikings game), Wynn simply appears too light to play as a 3-4 DE. He'll hang around in training camp this year, but if the Packers draft a DE (as seems likely), Wynn will be the first one to get cut.
Sum Up: What To Do?
The Packers will have a passel of decent players (Pickett, Wilson, Green) on the line, but if Neal gets hurt, this would be a pretty nondescript group except for Raji. Neal and Pickett are penciled in as the starting 3-4 DEs, but drafting another player with pass-rush capability would enable this line to dominate opposing offenses. I've come around to the idea of 'drafting to a position of strength'; the Packers aren't exactly weak on the line, but by beefing up their depth here they could conceivably be unstoppable. Adding a player like Corey Liuget, Phil Taylor, Cameron Heyward or J.J. Watt could do that.
First, The Goners:
Cullen Jenkins, #77, DE: 6'2", 302 lbs. Age: 30.
Jenkins, one of the team's few remaining players from the Mike Sherman era, will almost certainly leave the Packers in free agency. He's played out the four-year contract he signed in 2006, and while he nearly always had some sort of nagging injury, Jenkins registered a career-high seven sacks this year while starting just eight games. In addition, profootballfocus.com judges that he had the second-highest percentage of pressures per rush of any interior lineman. The Packers have shown little interest in re-signing him, and he can play virtually any position except nose tackle (since 2006, Jenkins has played as a 4-3 DE, 4-3 DT, 3-4 DE and 3-4 nickel rusher). Jenkins will get a huge payday someplace, and the Packers seem content to move on with whom they have.
Justin Harrell, #91, DE: 6'4", 315 lbs. Age: 27.
The Big Names
B.J. Raji, #90, NT/Nickel Rusher: 6'2", 337 lbs. Age: 24
Ryan Pickett, #79, DE: 6'2", 340 lbs. Age: 31
Howard Green, #95, DE: 6'2", 340. Age: 32
Mike Neal, #96, DE: 6'3", 294 lbs. Age: 23
The problem is that Neal couldn't stay healthy. After a solid training camp, Neal suffered a rare abdominal injury and was out for the first three games of the season. He forced a fumble in the fourth game (Detroit) and recorded a sack in the fifth (Washington), but injured his shoulder and went on injured reserve. It's a bit early to call him injury-prone, but, well... The Packers appear to be counting on him to replace Jenkins, which he is completely able to do, in my opinion. But if he never gets on the field, the Packers better have a backup plan before the season starts.
C.J. Wilson, #98, DE: 6'3", 290 lbs. Age: 23
Jarius Wynn, #94, DE: 6'3", 285 lbs. Age: 24
Beaten out by Wilson for the last spot on the line in 2010, Wynn was resigned almost immediately after Harrell tore his ACL in the first game. He's hung around the Packers for two seasons now but hasn't shown all that much; he's not stout against the run, and while he does have some pass-rush capability (he recorded the only sack of Brett Favre in the first Vikings game), Wynn simply appears too light to play as a 3-4 DE. He'll hang around in training camp this year, but if the Packers draft a DE (as seems likely), Wynn will be the first one to get cut.
Sum Up: What To Do?
The Packers will have a passel of decent players (Pickett, Wilson, Green) on the line, but if Neal gets hurt, this would be a pretty nondescript group except for Raji. Neal and Pickett are penciled in as the starting 3-4 DEs, but drafting another player with pass-rush capability would enable this line to dominate opposing offenses. I've come around to the idea of 'drafting to a position of strength'; the Packers aren't exactly weak on the line, but by beefing up their depth here they could conceivably be unstoppable. Adding a player like Corey Liuget, Phil Taylor, Cameron Heyward or J.J. Watt could do that.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)