The Packers' Prospects for Picking a Left Tackle

My team, the Green Bay Packers, is in dire need of a young left and a right tackle to stabilize our offensive line. Since GM Ted Thompson strongly prefers to acquire players through the draft, I set out to determine where the 32 present starters at left tackle came from in the NFL came from and in what round they were drafted. To gain an appreciation for which tackles were and are currently the best in the business, I decided to list the players from each conference that made the Pro Bowl in the 2000-2009 regular season (hence the 2001-2010 Pro Bowls) and figure out what rounds dominated the conversation. However, given the inherent flaws in the Pro Bowl, I also determined to find a football database that graded left tackles, see which tackles were graded the best over that same ten-year period and organize them by round.

Pictured: excellence.

My hypothesis heading into the project was that a clear majority of LTs currently active in the NFL would turn out to be former first-round picks. I further surmised that both the most effective tackles over the last ten years, and the majority of Pro Bowl tackles over that same period, would be first-rounders. The justification for this was my premise that first-round LTs are generally the only ones who possess a LT's unique skill set (size, bulk, quick feet, long arms, good punch, etc.) and thus would grade out the best over time. My object was to figure out what the Packers' odds are of getting a good left tackle in the upcoming draft, in which we pick 23rd and thus will likely miss the top prospects.

Currently Active:

I began by simply taking a census of left tackles currently active in the NFL, at the end of the 2009 season. I went to each team’s website, found their depth chart and identified the starting tackles for every one. For teams that had had to replace their tackle during the season, I tracked down the originals and wrote their name and the word “Preferred” by the man.

AFC

Colts: Charlie Johnson (sixth)
Titans: Michael Roos (second)
Texans: Duane Brown (first)
Jaguars: Eugene Monroe (first)

Steelers: Max Starks (third)
Browns: Joe Thomas (first)
Ravens: Jared Gaither (fifth, supplemental)
Bengals: Andrew Whitworth (second)

Jets: D’Brickashaw Ferguson (first)
Patriots: Sebastian Vollmer (second) [Preferred: Matt Light, second]
Dolphins: Jake Long (first)
Bills: Jonathan Scott (fifth)

Chargers: Marcus McNeill (second)
Raiders: Mario Henderson (third)
Chiefs: Branden Albert (first)
Broncos: Ryan Clady (first)

NFC

Bears: Chris Williams/Orlando Pace (first, first)
Packers: Chad Clifton (second)
Lions: Jeff Backus (first)
Vikings: Bryant McKinnie (first)

49ers: Joe Staley (first)
Cardinals: Jeremy Bridges (sixth)
Rams: Alex Barron (first)
Seahawks: Sean Locklear (third) [Preferred: Walter Jones, first]

Cowboys: Flozell Adams (second)
Eagles: Jason Peters (undrafted)
Redskins: Levi Jones (first) [Preferred: Chris Samuels, first]
Giants: David Diehl (fifth)

Saints: Jermon Bushrod (fourth) [Preferred: Jammal Brown, first]
Buccaneers: Donald Penn (undrafted)
Panthers: Jeff Otah (first) [Preferred: Jordan Gross, first]
Falcons: Sam Baker (first)

The table reads as follows:
1st round: 15
2nd: 6
3rd: 3
4th: 1
5th: 2
6th: 2
7th: 0
Undrafted/supplemental: 3
Total: 32

When we add in the number of preferred starters, such as Seattle’s Walter Jones or New Orleans’ Jammal Brown that were placed on injured reserve during the season (since this data was gathered by going to each team’s Web page and looking at their depth chart), the total climbs to 18 first-round left tackles and 7 second-round picks. The argument is already taking shape that left tackles at the top of the draft are generally the only ones who can survive and flourish in the NFL because only they possess the rare combination of qualities that mark the position. However, merely saying that first-round physical talent enables players to lock down their spots proves nothing, least of all what makes the top left tackles. To get a better idea of who the best tackles have been over the past ten years, let’s have a look at who went to the Pro Bowl during that time.

Pro Bowl:

“RT” denotes “right tackle”, and a running count of the number of berths filled is noted after each year. Teams are not noted.

2010: Joe Thomas (first), Ryan Clady (first), Jake Long (first), Jason Peters (undrafted), Bryant McKinnie (first), Jon Stinchcomb (first, RT). Total: five first, one undrafted.

2009: J. Thomas (first), Peters (undrafted), Samuels (first), Walter Jones (first), Michael Roos (second), Jordan Gross (first). Total: nine first, one second, two undrafted.

2008: Flozell Adams (second), Joe Thomas (first), Samuels (first), Peters (undrafted), Matt Light (second), Jones (first). Total: twelve first, three second, three undrafted.

2007: Jonathan Ogden (first), Jones (first), Flozell Adams (second), Jammal Brown (first), Willie Roaf (first), Willie Anderson (RT, first). Total: seventeen first, four second, three undrafted.

2006: Anderson (RT, first), Ogden (first), Tarik Glenn (first), Jones (first), Orlando Pace (first), Samuels (first). Total: twenty-three first, four second, three undrafted.

2005: Anderson (RT, first), Roaf (first), Pace (first), Tra Thomas (first), Ogden (first), Jones (first). Total: twenty-nine first, four second, three undrafted.

2004: Ogden (first), Roaf (first), Brad Hopkins (first), Adams (second), Pace (first), Jones (first). Total: thirty-four first, five second, three undrafted.

2003: Ogden (first), Roaf (first), Lincoln Kennedy (first, RT), Jones (first), T. Thomas (first), Pace (first). Total: forty first, five second, three undrafted.

2002: Kennedy (first, RT), Ogden (first), Jones (first), Pace (first), Samuels (first), James Williams (undrafted, RT). Total: forty-five first, five second, four undrafted.

2001: Ogden (first), Hopkins (first), Kennedy (first, RT), Pace (first), Roaf (first), Korey Stringer (first, RT). Total: fifty-one first-rounders, five second-rounders, four undrafted.
Total: 60 berths.

The numbers, as the viewer can see, are heavily skewed towards first-round picks. Of the 60 Pro Bowl berths to be filled from the 2000-2009 seasons and the 2001-2010 Pro Bowls, 44/50 (88%) were filled by first-rounders. When including right tackles, the numbers are 51/60 or 85%. Second-rounders make up 4/50 (8%) and 5/60 (8%), and the remaining 3/50 (6%) and 4/60 (7%) were undrafted players.

The number of players is also fairly telling:

Joe Thomas: 3 (first)
Ryan Clady: 1 (first)
Jake Long: 1 (first)
Jason Peters: 3 (undrafted)
Bryant McKinnie: 1 (first)
Jason Stinchcomb: 1 (RT) (first)
Flozell Adams: 3 (second)
Chris Samuels: 4 (first)
Matt Light: 1 (second)
Walter Jones: 8 (first)
Michael Roos: 1 (second)
Jordan Gross: 1 (first)
Jonathan Ogden: 7 (first)
Jammal Brown: 1 (first)
Willie Roaf: 5 (first)
Willie Anderson: 3 (RT) (first)
Tarik Glenn: 1 (first)
Orlando Pace: 6 (first)
Brad Hopkins: 2 (first)
Lincoln Kennedy: 3 (RT) (first)
Tra Thomas: 2 (first)
Jamie Williams: 1 (RT) (undrafted)
Korey Stringer: 1 (first)

One trap to fall into when looking at this data would be to assume that the data is skewed towards first-rounders because several of the all-time great left tackles were playing in this decade. Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Willie Roaf and Jonathan Ogden accounted for 26/60, or 43%, of available Pro Bowl berths in this time between the four of them, but the rest of the berths were also generally filled by fellow first-rounders. Of the 23 tackles listed (left and right), 18 were first-round picks. Three were second-rounders and two undrafted. Among the 18 left tackles, 14 were first-rounders, three were second-rounders and one was undrafted. No matter how you slice it, by number or by berths, first-round draft picks dominate the conversation among Pro Bowlers in the last ten years.

PFF rankings:

However, having Pro Bowl data is not enough. I wanted to go back and rank the top three tackles for each year in the study and see how they correlated with the Pro Bowl data, as well as how many first-rounders were contained in the top ten. This would also serve as a critique on the Pro Bowl and a way to see whether the best tackles in a given year were actually the ones selected. The only website I was able to find that gives comprehensive grades for all offensive tackles was profootballfocus.com, a site that claims to analyze every play for every given year and provide overall rankings of every player at that position in the NFL. I ended up ranking the top left tackles in two categories: their overall ranking on the site and their pass-blocking rating.

The only problem was that profootballfocus.com only had data for the 2008 and 2009 seasons, so my data comes exclusively from the period after which most of the great left tackles had retired, and a new breed of tackles had entered the fray. This lends added weight to the argument that, even without the several great left tackles skewing the results, first-round LTs still dominate the position.

Among pure LTs, defined here as those who started a majority of their games at LT in the 2009 NFL season:
-16 starts unless otherwise noted
-PB denotes a Pro Bowl berth


Overall:

1. Joe Thomas, CLE (First) PB
2. Jake Long, MIA (First) PB
3. Sebastian Vollmer, NE (Second) Eight games at LT, four at RT.
4. Jared Gaither, BAL (Supplemental) 11 games.
5. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, NYJ (First)
6. Jeff Backus, DET (First)
7. Andrew Whitworth, CIN (Second)
8. Ryan Clady, DEN (First) PB
9. Jordan Gross, CAR (First)
10. Jason Peters, PHI (Undrafted) PB

Pass-blocking:

1. Jake Long (first) PB
2. Joe Thomas (first) PB
3. Jared Gaither (supplemental)
4. Jason Peters (undrafted) PB
5. Andrew Whitworth (second)
6. D’Brickashaw Ferguson (first)
7. Sebastian Vollmer (second)
8. Jeff Backus (first)
9. Ryan Clady (first) PB
10. Chad Clifton (second)


The 2009 PFF results coincide pleasingly with the Pro Bowlers of the year, reaffirming (to my surprise) that the Pro Bowl often does get more or less the right players right. As the reader may have expected, six of the top ten overall tackles are first-rounders, and two more are second-rounders. The pass-blocking numbers are five and three respectively. Bryant McKinnie is not represented, ranking 33rd overall and 19th in pass-blocking, as he gave up the second-most sacks among LTs at nine. The other Pro Bowler, Jon Stinchcomb, is of course a right tackle.


The 2008 edition:

Overall:

1. Matt Light (second)
2. Michael Roos (second) PB
3. D’Brickashaw Ferguson (first)
4. Joe Thomas (first) PB
5. Jake Long (first)
6. Jared Gaither (supplemental)
7. Walter Jones (first) (12 games) PB
8. Donald Penn (TB), undrafted
9. Mark LeVoir (New England, four games) undrafted. Excised for insufficient time.
9b. Bryant McKinnie (first)
10. Chris Samuels (first). PB

Pass-blocking:

1. Michael Roos (second) PB
2. D’Brickashaw Ferguson (first)
3. Joe Thomas (first) PB
4. Jared Gaither (supplemental)
5. Jake Long (first)
6. Matt Light (second)
7. Walter Jones (first) PB
8. Bryant McKinnie (first)
9. Jordan Gross (first) PB
10. Tra Thomas (first)


Overall shows six firsts and two seconds; pass-blocking shows seven firsts and two seconds. Jason Peters (undrafted) is the only Pro Bowler who does not make an appearance.

Once again, first- and second-round picks show up as the best overall LTs and the best pass-blockers. My theory from the start of the project therefore remains, although slightly modified; LT prospects coming out of college who are sufficiently talented to be picked in the first round are generally the best tackles in the NFL. Tackles with the necessary skills (again, quick feet, height, weight and muscle, a good punch and so on) may occasionally drop to the early second round; Flozell Adams of the Cowboys, Michael Roos of the Titans and Matt Light of the Patriots were picked 38th, 41st and 48th respectively. However, tackles picked in later rounds simply do not have the physical tools to play LT at the highest level. Not a single third-to seventh-round tackle, left or right, has made the Pro Bowl in the past ten years. None were evident in the PFF rankings, either.

The sole problem with this conclusion presented by the data is the presence of undrafted players that nevertheless play left tackle at the highest level. Jason Peters and Jamie Williams made the Pro Bowl, and names such as Jared Gaither (supplemental draft) and Donald Penn are evident in the PFF rankings. The discerning reader may demand an explanation for this, but their concerns can easily be put to rest.

The simple answer is that not all prospects are created equal, and that players with the physical tools to play the position may fall out of consideration to be drafted because of other concerns. For example, Jared Gaither had academic problems at the University of Maryland and, instead of going back to school for another year, declared for the supplemental draft (thus falling out of what would’ve been serious consideration for a junior or senior year’s draft). Other players switched positions. Jason Peters never played a snap on the O-line in college, instead going undrafted as a tight end. Jamie Williams had both problems, coming from an obscure school as a defensive tackle, but eventually switched to right tackle.

So players with the physical tools to play LT can sometimes escape notice in the draft, beat the odds and start in the NFL at a high level, but their stories are as varied as they are unlikely. First- and second-round picks remain overwhelmingly the best option for NFL teams looking to secure their left tackle position. It should be noted that there is a measure of inflation in these numbers; given the pressing need for LTs in the NFL, LT prospects may be taken earlier then they otherwise would, but the dominance of first- and second-round picks is unchanged.

To return finally to the problems facing Ted Thompson, Chad Clifton (drafted in 2000 with the 44th pick) is in decline and at the end of his contract. Mark Tauscher, the longtime Green Bay right tackle who returned from ACL surgery halfway through the year to bail out Allen Barbre, is also not tenured for next year. Clifton is at present the best pass-blocker on the roster, backed up by promising guard/tackle T.J. Lang and guard Daryn Colledge. Based on the historical data, the Packers have a deep and serious need to draft a LT in the first or second rounds of the draft as a designated successor to Clifton, who will likely return on a one-year contract so the Packers can groom the eventual draft pick. Vladimir Ducasse is being bandied around as a legitimate second-round pick for the Pack, as is Charles Brown in the first. I’ll be studying LT prospects more in the coming weeks, but right now all I can say is this: short of scouting out a Jason Peters-type gem, the Packers absolutely must draft a LT in the first or second round. Attempts to fill the position in later rounds statistically will not work.

Edit: After a comment by Jersey Al, I decided to go through and see where each of the first-round offensive tackles that I mentioned were actually picked in the first round.

Joe Thomas: 3rd overall. Ryan Clady: 12th overall. Jake Long: 1st overall. Bryant McKinnie: 7th overall. Chris Samuels: 3rd. Walter Jones: 6th. Jordan Gross: 8th. Jonathan Ogden: 4th. Jammal Brown: 13th. Willie Roaf: 8th. Wilie Anderson: 10th. Tarik Glenn: 19th. Orlando Pace: 1st. Brad Hopkins: 13th. Lincoln Kennedy: 9th. Tra Thomas: 11th. Korey Stringer: 24th.

I guess historically, I was wrong in my original conclusion that the Packers must draft a LT prospect at No. 23. Only two of the tackles listed were picked lower then No. 13, and they attended just one Pro Bowl apiece in the time I surveyed.

One explanation for this trend might be that the top prospects are taken extremely high in the draft and tend to fly off the board very quickly; last year's top three prospects in Jason Smith, Andre Smith and Eugene Monroe all vanished within the first eight picks. So after the teams with major needs have filled them, teams who still need a LT but are now without a top prospect on the board can either overreach for a player or wait until the second round. That would explain the relatively large number of tackles picked in the early second round. I would guess that the top prospects only rarely make it down to No. 23 on the list, which is why we see so few of them in the Pro Bowl data.

Midseason Report: The Five Biggest Surprises of 2009

There are some reassuring certainties, in life and football, that will never change. The Lions will always suck, the Cowboys will always be a collection of the world's greatest douchenozzles and Peyton Manning will throw for 4,000 yards every year until they nail shut his coffin, just to name a few. However, every year there are a number of dazzling success stories and abysmal failures in the NFL, and luckily for fans of attempted football comedy I'm here to recount them. Let's go down the list, shall we:


No. 5: Darren Sharper seems to have a thing for proving his critics wrong in the most emphatic way possible. After he played eight years for the Packers and burned his name into many of the club record books (as well as heading to the Pro Bowl two times), Green Bay released him after the 2004 season, thinking he was all out of gas as a player. Sharper immediately turned around, signed with the Packers' archenemies, the Minnesota Vikings, and then proceeded to crap all over the Packers by playing so well he went to the '05 Pro Bowl. Sharper went on to play three more years for the Vikings until they, like the Packers before them, released him in the 2008 offseason. Why? What else: he was all washed up. Of course, Sharper signed with the New Orleans Saints and proceeded to tear shit up. As of this writing, he has picked off seven passes and leads the league with three of 'em returned for scores. Oh, yeah, and his Saints are 7-0 through seven games. Go you, Darren.


No. 4: The 1-6 Titans and the 3-4 Panthers. Combined into one entry because of both of their ridiculous light blue uniforms, these two teams were the class of their respective conferences last year. The Titans went into the playoffs with a 13-3 record, one of the best defenses in football and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The Panthers, meanwhile, settled for the No. 2 seed and had the third-best rushing attack in the game. Collectively, the two of them had shit made. Unfortunately for them, the Titans were ejected in the first round of the playoffs by the Baltimore Ravens and the Panthers melted down in their first round, with quarterback Jake Delhomme throwing five interceptions (and losing a fumble) as the Cardinals stomped all over the unlucky Panthers.

This year: The Titans became the laughingstock of the league as they started out 0-6. Sure, their defensive coordinator had left to go coach another team with absurd blue uniforms (the Detroit Lions at least try for dignity by throwing in some black) and their star defensive tackle went to the Redskins in free agency. But never mind that, right? Everything's going to be okay, right? They have Kerry Collins at quarterback!

Well, since it happened to be Collins' fifteenth year, it's not much of a surprise that he folded in the first half of this year. Their excellent secondary was reduced to crap, their offense blew up under a bevy of Collins-led turnovers and they lost six games in a row, culminating in a 59-0 shellacking by the New England Patriots. After which they picked themselves up, won one game and then running back Chris Johnson (the only man who can look like a total badass wearing powder blue and white) declared that his team was going to the playoffs. Yeah. Okay.

Meanwhile, the Panthers were struggling with their own quarterback shitshow. Remember how Jake Delhomme had a total meltdown in the divisional playoffs last year? Well, the curse apparently carried over to this year, since he's thrown a league-leading 13 interceptions and lost two fumbles already. But since they just signed him to a five-year, $36 million (or something like that; they all get a little fuzzy for me once they pass twenty million freaking dollars) contract extension, they're basically stuck with him as the starter. You can guess how well that went as the Panthers started 0-3.

However, all is not lost: The Panthers have since picked themselves up to win three of four games. Sure, two of them were against some of the league's worst teams in Tampa Bay and Washington (don't even get me started on Washington), but a win's a win, right? Plus, much more importantly, guess who their other win (and the latest game) was against? Yep, the Arizona Cardinals. And not only that, but their grizzled, veteran quarterback (Delhomme's in his 11th season, so he's one too) Kurt Warner threw-guess what?-five interceptions and lost a fumble. Panthers fans can only hope that the curse has passed on to some other poor sap so they can get back to the business of winning.


No. 3: Cedric Benson. This guy was a total bust when he was first drafted, and I do mean bust. He was the fourth pick in the draft in 2005 (for those who don't know, the draft has some 276 picks each year. That makes Ced a big deal) to the Chicago Bears, and was expected to be basically the second coming of Walter Payton when they brought him in. Benson held out through all of training camp, argued with his coaches and was arrested twice in five weeks in 2007. After serving as a backup to Thomas Jones for two years, he was gifted the starting job in '07 when Jones was traded to the New York Jets. To no one's surprise, he turned out to suck and was released following the '07 season.

This being a considerable shock to Benson, I can only surmise what he might have thought. I'd imagine it'd be two things: One, "Hey, all of my problems have basically been inside my head. Nobody gets drafted No. 4 overall without the tools to play the game, so all I have to do is figure out my mental issues and I can be groovy!" Two, "Where in the league do talented fuckups always, ALWAYS get a second chance?" Yes, you guessed it, readers; the Cincinnati Bengals. Benson signed with the Bengals for one year in 2008 and performed so well that they gave him a two-year, $7 million contract shortly thereafter.

The rest is currently being written in the form of history. Benson is fourth in the NFL with 720 rushing yards and is also one of only two backs in football to currently be averaging over 100 rushing yards per game (The other is the aforementioned gigafuck, Chris Johnson.) and his Bengals are 5-2 and leading the AFC North (former Pro Bowl QB Carson Palmer having returned from a season-ending elbow injury doesn't hurt either). Best of all, he got to play the Bears two weeks ago and ran for a career-high 189 yards and one touchdown. As I can only say to a guy who gashes the shit out of a division rival: You go, sir.


No. 2: Brett Favre. Much as I wanted to bump him up the list to No. 4, Favre deserves to be down here as the second biggest surprise of the year. Admit it: You thought he was washed up. In the wake of a tumultous season with the Jets that culminated in a 1-4 meltdown and the Jets missing the playoffs, plus a major shoulder injury, people were questioning whether Favre still had the magic touch. Hell, we were full-on shouting it in the direction of Hattiesburg, Miss. When he signed with the Vikings, we all figured he'd just be handing it off to scary motherfucker Adrian Peterson forty times a game, throwing a lot of short, safe passes and a lot more picks.

Well, so much for that idea. Favre currently co-leads the league with 16 touchdown passes and his completion percentage is fourth in the NFL. Plus, he's only thrown three picks, the fourth fewest in the league after you strike two guys that are no longer starting for their teams. Hell, one of the guys above him missed a bunch of games (Donovan McNabb) and another threw his only pick on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half, when it didn't mean shit (Kyle Orton). Oh, yeah, and the hated Vikings are now 7-1 and in position to run away with the NFC North. Sure, it's still early and Favre tends to wear down at the end of the year, but with a nice big heated dome to play in when the weather gets cold, you have to wonder just how far the Vikings can go.


No. 1: The 6-1 Broncos. Admit it, you're fucking shocked. I was, too, when the Broncos rocketed to 6-0 on the strength of their defense. Their defense! Hell, they were ranked 29th in the league a year ago! They were three teams away from giving up the most yards per game in the league (at a whopping 374.6 per)! This year, through seven games and a bye week, they are ranked first. Yes, you read that right. This year it's 266.7 yards per game, good enough to make them the best defense in football right now. What the hell changed?
Oh, and lest we forget, the Broncos endured perhaps the most tumultuous offseason in recent memory, up to and including the freaking Brett Favre shit-hurricane that hit Green Bay in 2008. In the 2009 offseason, it was the Broncos' turn. Understanding just what happened goes back to the last three games of the 2008 season, when the Broncos were leading the AFC North with an 8-5 record with three games to play and a three-game lead in their division over the 5-8 San Diego Chargers. All they needed was one win to clinch the division title and go to the playoffs. The Broncos then proceeded to choke it away by losing the last three games and allowing the Chargers to steal the title, thus becoming the first team in NFL history to fail that badly.

Just two days after that, the Broncos fired their two-time Super Bowl winning head coach, Mike Shanahan, and replaced him with a New England Patriots assistant coach named Josh McDaniels. Practically McDaniels' first move was to talk to the Patriots and the Chiefs about a possible three-team trade involving shipping the reigning franchise quarterback in Bronco-land, Jay Cutler, out of town. Cutler learned about it, got pissed and demanded to be shipped out of town, which after three weeks of media fuckstorm, he was. To the Chicago Bears. In return for draft picks and Kyle Orton, a middling Bears QB. Meanwhile, top receiver Brandon Marshall freaked out and started demanding a trade of his own. McDaniels and new GM Brian Xanders capped it off by drafting running back Knowshon Moreno with the No. 12 overall pick in the draft, eschewing badly needed defensive players, then went out and signed a shitton of random free agents to the point where reporters couldn't even keep track of the new guys.

Geez.

So what the hell changed? Well, among those free agents were a ton of new defensive players, including veteran safety Brian Dawkins, who was let go by Philadelphia and is currently feeling his oats ala Darren Sharper. Broncos owner Pat Bowlen also went out and got the premier defensive coordinator talent on the market, ex-49ers head coach Mike Nolan. Put that together with two new cornerbacks and a linebacker from the first two rounds of the draft, add the fact that McDaniels was hired because he helped create the megafuck Patriots offense that set all kinds of records in 2007 and kept on rolling in 2008 with a backup QB, and the Broncos are suddenly dangerous bastards. They're leading the AFC West, in fact. Only the second half of the season will tell what'll happen, with them and with all of the above guys and teams, but if it's anything like this first half it will be interesting as all hell. I'll leave it to the football gods to apportion failure and success. Later, folks.

Thirteen Ridiculous Things that We Believe Implicitly

You ever stop to think about how batshit crazy life is? I mean, seriously, do you? I don't think you do! Consider:

-Stars. We believe that, out in space, there are gigantic balls of gas that are constantly burning and putting out light and heat. So much light and heat, in fact, that you can feel it on your skin from ninety-three million miles away. They burn so bright, in fact, that we can see them from an unimaginably far distance, more distance then it is possible for the human mind to appreciate. Giant freaking balls of freaking gas that could burn you to a crisp from a million miles away.

-Black holes. Somewhere out in space is a patch of nothingness that sucks everything that is something, right down to atoms and light, into it. It could destroy the whole Earth without even pausing to digest it. It's the ultimate movie villain, except there is no possible way to fight it, just watch while it turns everything you've ever seen into spaghetti on its way to swallowing you and the rest of your kind.

-Atoms: Picture the smallest thing you could possibly see with the naked eye. What is it, a grain of sand? Dust? A flea maybe? A particularly disappointing one-night stand? Well, there are things thousands of times smaller then that. Oh, yeah, and they make up everything you will ever see in numbers greater then you could imagine. INTIMIDATED YET?

-String theory: The idea that everything you will ever see, down to levels below even the mind-boggling tininess of the atom, is made out of the same sort of stuff your cat likes to play with.

-The Big Bang: We now believe that everything you have ever seen or met or heard of, every person you've ever talked to, everything you've ever seen or conceived of and the entirety of stars and galaxies and planets and black holes that is our universe, was once part of one object smaller then the head of a flea. And nobody knows quite why this went down, just that it did.

-Pictures: The idea that you can capture a single moment, or a series of moments in the form of video, forever. Whenever you want to.

-The Internet: A series of tubes containing every asshole with access. Along with phone lines and satellite communication, this goes along with the idea that you can talk to anyone anywhere in our huge fucking world (for a small fee and provided you have their 'contact information') in less then five minutes. EVERYONE, EVERYWHERE, from your next door neighbor to fucking Nepal.

-Genetic engineering and DNA: The idea that there is a basic 'code', like computer code, for everything living on this planet AND WE KNOW HOW TO HACK IT. That frightens the pants off of me, I don't know about you. But, damn! We can hack nature and put together whatever constructs we want! Could there be anything more scary?

-Nanobots: Yes. There are robots that can live inside your body. That's really all that needs to be said.

-Space shuttles, spaceships, satellites, etc: We got people off this planet. WE PUT A MOTHERFUCKING MAN ON THE MOTHERFUCKING MOON. The moon! That little dot up there in the sky, we walked on that! Are you kidding me? We sent people up in SPACE? We got them off of this entire freaking planet?

-Nuclear weapons: The idea that there is at this very moment, scattered around the planet, enough destructive power to end all human life. All of us. Everyone. The lady who bags your groceries at the supermarket, your favorite celebrity or football star, some scientist freezing his ass off in Antarctica, you, me, everyone you've ever met. And not just us right now, but everything we have ever done. All the achievements of humankind survive right now only due to the fact that we remember them. All the inventions, all the philosophers, all the lovers, all the comedies would all be gone as if they'd never existed. Think about it.

-The Internet again. With nothing more than a click of your mouse, you can: buy or sell every commercial product imaginable, talk to a friend, order a pizza, sound off on some issue or other *cough*, tell someone you love them, listen to music, watch a movie, help a starving child, read this post, do your homework, get over your ex, whatever. Take a minute to think about that. Really, really do.

Now:

Having just blown your mind with twelve scientific concepts/horrifying realities, I'm going to take a step back and blow it again in a different way.

Love.

Yeah, love. Wanna make something of it?

No, but seriously. The idea that...
When you see that special person it just lifts you up inside, no matter how you were feeling. When the two of you are together and there really is a together, when you meet each other's needs like nobody else ever could. When you see that girl or boy and this warm, golden feeling just fills you up inside like you could skip over the moon, holding their hand beside you. When a smile from them, or a conversation, or a kiss, is all it takes to make you happy. Really, truly happy, deep down inside where there's a light in all the corners of your heart where light never used to shine. And knowing that they're just as happy as you are and feel the way that you feel.

Doesn't the fact that we as people can feel that feeling, that kind of unconditional, passionate love, just blow you away?

Packers vs. Vikings; Different venue, same bloody result.

You want to be mad at the Vikings, you know? You want to cuss them out and call them the Queens, the Queers, the nameless fucktards on the other side of the western border. You want to be mad at them because they have a habit of picking up expatriate Packers, most recently our esteemed quarterback who just waltzed into Lambeau Field like it was three years ago and threw for four touchdowns to beat his former team, 38-26. You want to hate them because they're looking like they might march through the NFC this year en route to a division title, and maybe even more then that.

But they're good people. They really are. This isn't the Love Boat fiasco of 2005. This isn't Randy Moss fake-mooning the Packer faithful. This is Adrian Peterson, a class act if ever there was one, making the Packers pay with a long screen pass to set up the decisive score from Favre to Berrian, who wasn't even supposed to play in this game. This is Percy Harvin, this year's DeSean Jackson without the hubris, becoming such a gigafuck that the Packers squib-kicked in the third quarter just to avoid giving him the ball. The Vikings just have more stars on the team; Jared Allen, who cemented his trip to the Pro Bowl this year by racking up 7.5 sacks in two nationally televised games against the Green and Gold; Sidney Rice, who was going to be the latest high pick in the draft to bottom out until Favre arrived this year and inexplicably resurrected him; Steve Hutchinson, the all-pro guard who helped create an impregnable wall for Green Bay's defenders in both games, holding the Packers without a sack in either contest.

And then there's Favre. Brett Lorenzo Favre, who by all appearances has junked everything that got him run out of Green Bay and amplified everything that kept him there for sixteen years. Favre, throwing into double coverage and coming away with the completion. Favre, tossing four touchdown passes and withstanding a furious Green Bay rally in the third quarter. Favre, jumping to check on a fallen Greg Jennings-he who caught No. 421- when he came down in front of him on the Vikings' sideline. Everything he was ripped for in the Green Bay and national media-not being a leader, throwing interceptions-he has apparently resolved. Favre, breaking the hearts of the Packer faithful one more time before finding Berrian for the game-clinching TD.

And the Packers wanted this one so badly. The fans wanted it, the team, the coaches wanted it, I wanted it so badly. And you could tell on the field. They were that boxer that, however unmatched against a more skilled opponent, battled to the end. The Vikings shut down Ryan Grant (ten carries, 30 yards). They sacked Rodgers six times. They raced up and down the field as if on jetpacks on special teams. And we were still fracking in it! Rodgers tossing two touchdowns to Spencer Havner, the converted LB's fifth and sixth career catches. Greg Jennings catching another score despite having a Viking in his shirt. Driver and Jennings both returning after devastating hits. Emotionally and physically, the Packers gave everything they had, and that just wasn't enough.

Paper Rose

Another gem from English 160. Now I'm experimenting with the idea of the first-person observer, that is, the person who watches the action, sees all but experiences none of it.


The girl sat alone in a corner of the coffee shop. I watched her out of the corner of my eye as I collected my low-fat Americano from the barista, saw her bury her face in her hands as I slipped a dollar in the change jar, then straighten up and tuck her hair behind her ears as I walked back to my table. She had long brown hair, almost black, that fell in front of her eyes when she shook her head. A full cup of coffee, an old-fashioned white china mug, rested on the table in front of her, spent sugar packets surrounding it like a battered halo.

The girl rummaged through her purse and took out her cell phone, stabbing fingers into the buttons before holding the device to her ear. She waited, drumming on the table with her other hand, before swearing softly and hanging up. The phone skittered across the table and fell on the empty bench beside her as she flung it on the table, and swearing more volubly now, leaned over to retrieve it. As she straightened up, fixing her hair again, I caught a glimpse of her face in the light of the afternoon sun piercing through the window of the shop. She had deep blue eyes, the color of some tropical ocean. You could look into those eyes and imagine lying on some beach together with a drink at your elbow, listening to birds chittering from the bushes as you watched the sun set.

She was watching the door. I blew on my Americano and turned towards the door as well, sipping my coffee as I did so. The box full of used cups and dishes jingled softly behind me as someone dropped a saucer in.

You should go over and talk to her.

The thought entered my head without so much as a ‘hello’ or a ‘how’s the weather’, blazing into my thoughts as only an inspiration can. I took a deep breath.

Don’t be ridiculous. She’s probably waiting for someone.

So what? They’re not here, are they?

They could be. Any minute now.

Look at her, man. She’s cute, she’s here by herself and so are you. You should go over and talk to her! She’s probably thinking right now “Why doesn’t that cute guy come over here and have a seat?”

Or she isn’t. And then-

And then what? What’s the worst that could happen?

She could say no. She could think I’m a freak for just asking, tell me to get out, tell me-
Spare me. Look, if you don’t take a chance, you’ll never win a penny.

Over in her corner, the girl shrugged her arms into her coat and picked up her china mug and saucer.

See? Now or never, man! Go talk to her! Just go do it! Come on!

I-- Oh, hell.

The inner debate ended as I pushed myself up from the wooden bench. I knocked my knee against the table, cursing as my drink twirled at the edge of the table and then, almost gracefully, dumped its contents all over my pants.

Had the girl seen me, my fears of looking like an idiot would have come entirely true; she, however, was busy hurling insults at the man with the black leather jacket who had just come through the glass door. “Bastard! Jerk! Where were you?” she fumed. “I’ve been sitting here all by myself for half an hour, looking like a complete idiot, and you’ve been—where? Where have you been?”

“Baby, I got caught up in traffic, simmer down! Simmer down!” His hands were drawn up in front of him as if to remove a steaming teakettle from a stove, but the teakettle would have none of it. “Simmer down? Simmer down! You were with her again, weren’t you! You were late for our date because you were with Jessica! I knew it!” She advanced, jabbing a finger into his chest and hissing like a viper.

While treating my soaked pants with napkins snatched from the rack behind me, I couldn’t help but watch the budding apocalypse in the middle of the shop. Conversations died like flowers in autumn as other patrons turned to stare, and even the barista put down the tip jar to see what was happening.

“I was caught up in traffic! There was some guy on the road, some guy in a Volvo that cut me off, every damn time he cut me off, I was on the highway for an hour and a half because of this sonuvabitch!” He didn’t back away from the charge, meeting her stare for angry stare. His hands tightened around a piece of white paper from his jacket pocket.

“You were with her again! God, can’t you at least tell the truth to my face?” Water began to fill the corners of her eyes. “I know you’re still in love with her, damn you! Just say it! Just say it and get it over with!”

“That is not true. That is not true!”

“I know it is, I know it, I know it…” Her anger was slowly dissolving. The man stepped hesitantly toward her and made as if to enfold her in his arms, but she planted a hand on his chest and backed away. “I love you. I love you, Marie”, came from him, but she turned away on high heels with a hand over her eyes. “Go. Just, go.”

“Marie-“

“Just go! GO!”

The man hesitated, half-stepped towards the door, then flung the piece of paper aside and practically bolted. The girl stood like that in the middle of the shop for a second, tears now streaming past her hand and dropping off her chin. The cup fell from her other hand, rebounding from the floor and spilling coffee everywhere. A sliver of white china fell away from the mug. She swore again, mopping at her eyes with a napkin, then walked towards my table and the box of china behind me. She thrust the mug into the box. I couldn’t help looking up into her eyes, her deep blue eyes, as she paused for a moment over me. She glanced down at me sitting there, me with my soaking wet pants and grande Americano, and paused for just a moment. Tears fell from her eyes onto my table. I opened my mouth to say something, I don’t know what, but she was already striding out through the open door.

As I looked around, trying to make sense of the suddenly empty scene, my eyes fastened on the paper the man had thrown aside. It lay on the floor near my table, drowning in a puddle of coffee. I picked it up and unwrapped the outer coating. Inside was a single paper rose.

Breaking Twenty

This is one of a few pieces I've been writing for my English 160 class. This particular item was composed shortly before class, like ten minutes shortly, but I think it still turned out pretty well. Enjoy.


A stream of apple juice pours from the soft drink dispenser, pattering gently into the Styrofoam cup that its owner holds wearily beneath it. Ryan turns away with the full cup, squinting in the early morning light that gazes in through the windows, and grabs a frosted roll from the rack beside him. A plastic fork and a Styrofoam plate complete the sorry ensemble as Ryan walks back to one of the many square tables dotting the hotel cafeteria.

“Gonna make you fat, man. Slow you down.”

The owner of the voice, a wiry young boy named Terrence, looks up from a newspaper to deliver these words of wisdom. “Get some Cheerios or something”, he advises once more before diving back into the sports pages. “ATLANTA FALLS TO GIANTS” reads the headline, with a picture of a heavily muscled man caught mid-celebration beneath it.

A baleful glare is his only answer from across the table as Ryan crunches into the cinnamon roll, scattering flakes of sugar over the table like a brief snowfall. The fluorescent lights above them flicker and die momentarily, as if even they are disgusted by the early hour, before once more reviving to cast their clumsy light over the table.

The scene around them shifts as more boys descend the stairs, most trying unsuccessfully to stifle their yawns behind gloved hands. All are garbed for the outdoors, clothed in layer upon layer of sweats and UnderArmor. A few head for the small buffet, but most opt to snack on energy bars or graham crackers. Ironically, they will be outside today in the scantiest of clothing, despite all their preparations to the contrary.

“See, man? What’s all this about?” Terrence prods the roll for emphasis. The brief snowfall is over, with a dusting of sugar scattered all across the table. “You’ll never break 20 eating shit like that. Go get some real food or something. At least get a bar for later.”

“Shut up. I’m going to break twenty.”

“No, dude. What’s your best time? Twenty-fifty? You barely came in under 21 minutes, you need all the help you can get.”

For the first time, some life shows in Ryan’s eyes. “Fuck off, man. My mile time was six and a half minutes last race. That’s under 20 for a five-kilometer race.”

“Yeah, and your last mile was eight minutes. Get serious, dude! You have to pick that shit up!”

“Shut up.”

“You know I’m right, man. Stop being a pussy and just run!”

The sun finally rises fully over the horizon, washing the pale room in gold and bronze. The leaves outside the hotel kitchen are suddenly outlined in fire.

“Didn’t I just tell you to fuck off!” Ryan is on his feet now with no memory of standing. All around the room, runners huddled over their meager breakfasts look up in surprise. The newspaper lies forgotten on the table, its headline drowning in spilt apple juice. “I’m going to break 20 no matter what I eat! You watch me! You watch me go over that line at the end of the tunnel, because I will fucking well fly over it if I so choose!” Ryan stops, aware for the first time of the eyes around him, ranging from startled interest to newly awakened vigor. “And I hope you’re right beside me so you can personally watch! Let it be known, I will break 20 minutes on the damn 5K! Now, today, end of discussion! And we will win this race because I know every one of you will run with the same heart, the same balls and determination and fire, as I will! Now how about it?”

There is no dramatic pause. As soon as Ryan’s last sentence hurtles out of his mouth, the whole team is up on their feet and crowding around the two of them in a sudden, spontaneous dogpile. A breathless outpouring of chants, encouragement, curses and random noise washes over the hotel buffet. At its center, Terrence catches Ryan’s still-furious eyes. He grins, even winks, then stands up and adds his stenotorian yell to the crowded room. “LET’S DO THIS, GREYHOUNDS!!” rebounds off the walls and smashes through the automatic doors.

Packers vs. Vikings Post-Game Wrapup

Post-game Packers vs. Vikings thoughts:

-Through four games, the Packers have five sacks. They were held without one tonight. They have two from Cullen Jenkins (defensive end) and one each from linebackers Aaron Kampman, Clay Matthews and Brandon Chillar. What happened to the pressure? Favre was allowed to sit there for four, five and even a ridiculous 7.34 seconds and throw the ball untouched. Any QB in the league can complete passes with that kind of time, not that he needed it to beat the gaping holes in our zone coverage. Maybe it’s time to start having Al Harris press more, because he was getting beaten all day by Bernard Berrian. Derrick Martin appeared to be at fault on the touchdown to Berrian.

-Eight sacks is a travesty in so many ways. All I can say is that Rodgers held the ball too long. Against another defense or with better linemen, ‘too long’ might be 4-5 seconds. Against this defense and with these tackles, it was three seconds. He has to realize that and go to whatever open man he sees first. I remember at least two sacks where he pumped once and got hit as he was reloading. There’s no time for that shit. Rodgers was running headlong into linebackers instead of scrambling. Even on his one scramble for 12 yards, he waited near the line of scrimmage for someone to get open before finally tucking and running. That speaks of him feeling the pressure and needing to throw.

-Welcome to the NFL, Jermichael Finley. Finley’s 62-yard catch and run for a score and his later 37-yard completion were masterful. Finley took a step closer to taking the No. 1 tight end position. He made a good catch on the ball at the goal line but was wrapped up by a LB before he could get to the end zone. There was a point where Finley was beating whatever safety he was matched up on. It’s nice to see that one of the pieces from the preseason has fallen into place.

-What has happened to Greg Jennings? In the past three games, he has a total of just six catches. Yes, the two against the Rams combined for 103 yards, but you have to wonder why Rodgers isn’t getting the ball to his No. 1 wideout more. Is he not open enough, or what’s going on? Last year Jennings dominated teams through the first six weeks of the season. He has done nothing of the kind this year.

-Another week, another good game from Ryan Grant. Grant has flown somewhat under the radar this season and has yet to reach 100 yards in a game, limited as he is by McCarthy’s playcalls that heavily favor the pass (only five runs in the first half this time around). Still, Grant ran hard for 51 yards on 11 carries and, for the first time in a long time, showed some pop as a receiver. He caught three screens that went for first downs, and on one of the final desperation drives made a great catch over the middle and picked up 15 yards, the first down and got out of bounds to stop the clock. That was as good of a play as I’ve seen him make this year.

-The officials certainly didn’t help the Packers this time around, flagging them for 7 penalties for 57 yards. While that’s a marked improvement (sadly), that still cannot be tolerated. Six of them came in the first half and all were costly. Woodson’s phantom PI call in the end zone that nullified his interception was pure horseshit, but it would have been wiped out anyway by an offsides call on the same play. There were a lot of blatant holds by the Vikings that went completely uncalled.

-Our secondary was just not there. Everyone was getting beat, but to be fair, the best of the best pros at CB and S will break down in coverage with zero pass rush. And when I say zero, I mean zero. Favre was hit once by Kampman. That was it. Literally, that was the only knockdown. It’s not as if Favre was stepping out of the way of pressure either, it’s that the pressure simply was not there. How hard can it be to sack a department store mannequin in the pocket?

-Having said that, holding Adrian Peterson to something like 25 carries, 56 yards is a huge step for the run defense. For the most part, the Packers swarmed to the football, didn’t let Peterson run outside the tackles and stacked him up at the line of scrimmage. Clay Matthews made an amazing play to rob Peterson of the ball on his fumble return for a TD; that seemed to take the mojo right out of Peterson. I believe that was the last carry on which he just would not go down; after that, he went to the turf more quietly and didn’t finish his runs like he did in much of the first half. For a runner who had historically torn through the Packers’ various defenses like a human tornado-only being stopped in the second game of 2007 by a knee injury-this was a pleasure to watch.

-Where’s Nick Collins gone off to? His clavicle injury will surely benefit from the bye week, but the Packers haven’t called his name since the first game of the year. He doesn’t appear to be playing aggressively and isn’t around the ball as much (just one tackle tonight). Getting him back up to form will be a major plus for this defense.

-The 2009 Packers have to be the best fourth-quarter team I have ever seen. I’m sure the stats would bear me out, but the Internet is down as I write this so I’ll have to improvise: Against the Bears, they score a dramatic game-winning TD. Against the Bengals, they rediscover offensive life near the end and are poised to win the game but run out of time. Against the Rams, they shut them out and score two TDs in the fourth quarter. And tonight against the Vikings: The defense erases Adrian Peterson from the map, finds the testicles it had been missing all night and prevents Favre from doing anything whatsoever. The offense goes into superfuck mode, mounting two long scoring drives. If we could just channel that fourth quarter excellence and make it last entire games, we would be doing to teams what we did to the Arizona Cardinals in the first half this preseason. (Obviously the internet is back now but it's late and I'm lazy.)

-Speaking of which, it is officially time for us to start living in the now (as it were) and forget completely about the 2009 preseason. Those Packers were invincible along the O-line, completed whatever passes they chose to complete, stifled opposing quarterbacks and forced enough turnovers to open their own Applebees’. These Packers are and can do none of the above, with the exception of forcing turnovers. These Packers are on pace to allow 80 sacks this season, and I can say with certainty that if we continue like this, Aaron Rodgers will not make it all the way through the year. And then we will REALLY be fucked.

-That series on the goal line pretty much summed up the night on offense. The Packers were moving the ball with impunity until they got to the five yard line of the Vikings. On first down, Grant ran for 4. On second down, a handoff to John Kuhn went nowhere as Kuhn went flying through the air to land just shy of the goal line. On third down, Rodgers’ quick (forced) pass to Finley went nowhere as the LB covering him made an exquisite tackle. On fourth down, Donald Lee dropped the TD. I very much support McCarthy’s decision to go for it there, but goddamn, that TD could have helped us out immeasurably.

-Finally, while this sucks like hell, it is not the end of the world. The Packers have a bye week to get healthy (and pray that Colledge, Jenkins and Blackmon don’t have serious injuries) at the end of which they should get Chad Clifton and Atari Bigby back. After that, we can pick our asses up and maybe make some noise in the NFC.

WHAT WE HAVE, HAVE, HAVE TO DO OVER THE BYE WEEK:

-Settle Rodgers down. Make it clear beyond a doubt to him that in games like that, it’s OK-hell, it’s great-to throw to your first open man. You don’t have to make a huge play every time. There were far too many moments in tonight’s game where Rodgers looked, saw something and looked again for something bigger and wound up getting sacked. That can’t happen again like it did tonight.

-Dom Capers, reshuffle your blitzes. We didn’t blitz hardly at all tonight. The one time we did that was effective, I remember, Charles Woodson got in Favre’s face and deflected the pass (although Taylor still caught the thing). Otherwise there was no pressure. This defense has produced turnovers but not sacks; let’s get some sacks.

-Sign a left tackle. I don’t care how, I don’t care whom (I think the ex-Bengal Levi Jones is the best on the market right now) but sign a goddamn left tackle over the bye week and give him some time to get acclimated. Call it shutting the barn door after the horse has fucking flown away, call it whatever you like, but do it. If Clifton goes down again and all we have to throw out against the NFL’s elite right ends is Daryn Colledge and T.J. Lang, we’re going to see the same thing over and over again as we saw with Antuan Odom and Jared Allen. God, ESPN showed every one of his sack dances, and every single one made me physically sick.